Long-term trends in snowpack in the Pacific Northwest Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, and Dennis Lettenmaier.

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Presentation transcript:

Long-term trends in snowpack in the Pacific Northwest Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, and Dennis Lettenmaier

20th century decline in NH snow cover R.D. Brown, J. Climate, 2000

Elevation (m) Areas with December temperatures near freezing Topography of the Pacific Northwest

Trends in snowpack Use VIC and met data to evaluate trends, roles of temperature and precipitation

Outline Snow course results VIC results Wild speculation

Trends in April 1 snow water equivalent,

Precipitation trend (%) Temperature trend (C)

Attributing proportion of trend T = r(S,T) where = trend in T T = proportion of trend in S attributable to trend in T r(S,T) = regression of S on T, interannual

Outline Snow course results VIC results Wild speculation

VIC simulation 1/8° long x 1/8° lat 47°N to 49°N, coast to Continental Divide Daily weather data, 1/1/ /30/98 interpolated to VIC grid points from USHCN stations

+: observed o: nearest VIC grid point

Outline Snow course results VIC results Wild speculation

Conclusions Observations show substantial declines in Northwest snowpack; corroboration with VIC suggests they are real Trends in temperature are partly responsible A foretaste of things to come?