The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals.

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Presentation transcript:

The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals

The Functions of Force 1.Defense 2.Deterrence 3.Compellence (coercive diplomacy) 4.Swaggering Based in part on:

Sources Thomas Schelling. Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960). Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). Alexander George, David Hall, William Simons. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1971). Robert Art. To What Ends Military Power? International Security Vol. 4, No. 4 (Spring, 1980), pp Herman Kahn. On Escalation (NY: Penguin, 1965).

1. Defense

Defense at its most complex

Defense at its most basic

2. Deterrence Goal: To prevent action Method: Threat Aimed at influencing an opponent’s decision making Assumption: rationality

Rational Choice Cost Benefit Analysis Threat: increases perception of costs OptionsCostsBenefits A?? B?? C??

Types of Deterrence Deterrence by Punishment Deterrence by Denial

Communication Europe during the Cold War China and Taiwan

Credibility and Reputation Capability Will A bluff?

Extended Deterrence Europe Japan S. Korea Israel Taiwan Australia New Zealand

What to Threaten?

Irrationality? Saddam Hussein Kim Jong-un

If deterrence fails….

3. Compellence (coercive diplomacy) Goal: To change opponent behavior To stop an opponent from doing something they are doing To get an opponent to do something they are not doing

Basic Elements 1.Brute force won’t work 2.Assumes rationality 3.War is bargaining 4.The power to hurt allows you to enter the bargaining

1. Brute force won’t work

2. Assumes Rationality Cost Benefit Analysis OptionsCostsBenefits A?? B?? C??

3. War is Bargaining

4. Entering the Bargaining? The power to hurt Capability Intentions

Some Lessons 1.Shadow of the Future 2.It doesn’t always work 3.Commitment 4.Credibility 5.Democracies and Compellence 6.Balance of Commitment 7.Non-state Actors 8.Civilians 9.Uncertainty and Risk 10.Domestic Politics 11.Irrationality?

1. Shadow of the Future What coerces? The promise of future violence

2. It doesn’t always work

Compellence Success Cuban Missile Crisis

Compellence Failure F-105s over Vietnam

3. Commitment Berlin Airlift 1948

4. Credibility A. Continue the pain

Credibility B. Interdependence of credibility and commitment Reputation Was Vietnam about Europe? “Doctrine of Credibility”

5. Democracies Poor at compellence? Vulnerable?

6. Balance of Commitment Vietnam War

Balance of Commitment Ukraine

7. Non-State Actors Two Eras A.Cold War Insurgencies and Marxist ethno- nationalist terrorists Vietcong Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)

Non-State Actors B. Post-Cold War: Network organizations living off of globalization Not state sponsored AQAM Boko Haram ISIL Al-Shabab

8. Civilians Dresden, Feb 1945 World Trade Center

9. Uncertainty and Risk Competition in risk taking Brinkmanship “The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance” Escalation Herman Kahn

10. Domestic Politics and Compellence

The Politics of the Target Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Dilemmas Irratioality Perceiving message Can the opponent do what you ask?

4. Swaggering The Great White Fleet 12/07-2/09

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