Chapter 5 Determination of Forward and Futures Prices Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Consumption vs Investment Assets Investment assets are assets held by significant numbers of people purely for investment purposes (Examples: gold, silver) Consumption assets are assets held primarily for consumption (Examples: copper, oil) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Short Selling (Page 102-103) Short selling involves selling securities you do not own Your broker borrows the securities from another client and sells them in the market in the usual way Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Short Selling (continued) At some stage you must buy the securities so they can be replaced in the account of the client You must pay dividends and other benefits the owner of the securities receives There may be a small fee for borrowing the securities Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example You short 100 shares when the price is $100 and close out the short position three months later when the price is $90 During the three months a dividend of $3 per share is paid What is your profit? What would be your loss if you had bought 100 shares? Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Notation for Valuing Futures and Forward Contracts Spot price today F0: Futures or forward price today T: Time until delivery date r: Risk-free interest rate for maturity T Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

An Arbitrage Opportunity? Suppose that: The spot price of a non-dividend-paying stock is $40 The 3-month forward price is $43 The 3-month US$ interest rate is 5% per annum Is there an arbitrage opportunity? Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012 18

Another Arbitrage Opportunity? Suppose that: The spot price of nondividend-paying stock is $40 The 3-month forward price is US$39 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum Is there an arbitrage opportunity? Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012 19

The Forward Price If the spot price of an investment asset is S0 and the futures price for a contract deliverable in T years is F0, then F0 = S0erT where r is the T-year risk-free rate of interest. In our examples, S0 =40, T=0.25, and r=0.05 so that F0 = 40e0.05×0.25 = 40.50 Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012 20

If Short Sales Are Not Possible.. Formula still works for an investment asset because investors who hold the asset will sell it and buy forward contracts when the forward price is too low Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.1 Consider a 4-month forward contract to buy a zero-coupon bond that will mature 1 year from today. The current price of the bond is $930. Assume that the 4-month risk-free rate of interest (compounded continuously) is 6% per annum. Calculate the forward price of the contract today. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Income (page 107, equation 5 F0 = (S0 – I )erT where I is the present value of the income during life of forward contract Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.2 Consider a 10-month forward contract on a stock when the stock price is $50. Assume that the risk-free rate of interest (compounded continuously) is 8% per annum for all maturities. Also assume that dividends of $.75 per share are expected after 3 months, 6 months, and 9 months. Calculate the price of this forward contract today. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Yield (Page 109, equation 5 F0 = S0 e(r–q )T where q is the average yield during the life of the contract (expressed with continuous compounding) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.3 Consider a 6-month forward contract on an asset that is expected to provide income equal to 2% of the asset price once during a 6-month period. The risk-free rate of interest (continuous compounding) is 10% per annum. The asset price is $25. Calculate the Forward price of the contract today. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Valuing a Forward Contract A forward contract is worth zero (except for bid-offer spread effects) when it is first negotiated Later it may have a positive or negative value Suppose that K is the delivery price and F0 is the forward price for a contract that would be negotiated today Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Valuing a Forward Contract Page 109-11 By considering the difference between a contract with delivery price K and a contract with delivery price F0 we can deduce that: the value of a long forward contract, ƒ, is (F0 – K )e–rT the value of a short forward contract is (K – F0 )e–rT Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.4 A long forward contract on a non-dividend-paying stock was entered into some time ago. It currently has 6 months to maturity. The risk-free rate of interest (continuous) is 10% per annum, the stock price is $25, and the delivery price is $24. Calculate the 6-month forward price today and the value of the forward contract. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Forward vs Futures Prices When the maturity and asset price are the same, forward and futures prices are usually assumed to be equal. (Eurodollar futures are an exception) When interest rates are uncertain they are, in theory, slightly different: A strong positive correlation between interest rates and the asset price implies the futures price is slightly higher than the forward price A strong negative correlation implies the reverse Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Stock Index (Page 112-114) F0 = S0 e(r–q )T Can be viewed as an investment asset paying a dividend yield The futures price and spot price relationship is therefore F0 = S0 e(r–q )T where q is the average dividend yield on the portfolio represented by the index during life of contract Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Stock Index (continued) For the formula to be true it is important that the index represent an investment asset In other words, changes in the index must correspond to changes in the value of a tradable portfolio The Nikkei index viewed as a dollar number does not represent an investment asset (See Business Snapshot 5.3, page 113) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.5 Consider a 3-month futures contract on an index. Suppose that the stocks underlying the index provide a dividend yield of 1% per annum, the current value of the index is 1300, and the continuously compounded risk-free rate of interest is 5% per annum. Calculate the futures price today. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Index Arbitrage When F0 > S0e(r-q)T an arbitrageur buys the stocks underlying the index and sells futures When F0 < S0e(r-q)T an arbitrageur buys futures and shorts or sells the stocks underlying the index Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Index Arbitrage (continued) Index arbitrage involves simultaneous trades in futures and many different stocks Very often a computer is used to generate the trades Occasionally simultaneous trades are not possible and the theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between F0 and S0 does not hold (see Business Snapshot 5.4 on page 114) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Futures and Forwards on Currencies (Page 112-115) A foreign currency is analogous to a security providing a yield The yield is the foreign risk-free interest rate It follows that if rf is the foreign risk-free interest rate Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.6 Suppose that the 2-year interest rates in Australia and the US are 5% and 7%, respectively, and the spot exchange rate between the AUD and the USD is .6200 USD per 1 AUD. Calculate the 2-year forward exchange rate. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Consumption Assets: Storage is Negative Income F0  S0 e(r+u )T where u is the storage cost per unit time as a percent of the asset value. Alternatively, F0  (S0+U )erT where U is the present value of the storage costs. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Example 5.8 Consider a 1-year futures contract on an investment asset that provides no income. It costs $2 per unit to store the asset, with payment being made at the end of the year. Assume that the spot price is $450 and the risk-free rate is 7% per annum for all maturities. Calculate (a) the PV of the storage costs today and (b) the futures price today. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

The Cost of Carry (Page 118) The cost of carry, c, is the storage cost plus the interest costs less the income earned For an investment asset F0 = S0ecT For a consumption asset F0  S0ecT The convenience yield on the consumption asset, y, is defined so that F0 = S0 e(c–y )T Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Futures Prices & Expected Future Spot Prices (Page 121-123) Suppose k is the expected return required by investors in an asset We can invest F0e–r T at the risk-free rate and enter into a long futures contract to create a cash inflow of ST at maturity This shows that Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Futures Prices & Future Spot Prices (continued) No Systematic Risk k = r F0 = E(ST) Positive Systematic Risk k > r F0 < E(ST) Negative Systematic Risk k < r F0 > E(ST) Positive systematic risk: stock indices Negative systematic risk: gold (at least for some periods) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

F0 vs E(ST) If F0 < E(ST), this is called normal backwardation and reflects the fact that investors expect prices (underlying and futures prices) to rise. If F0 > E(ST), this is called contango and reflects the fact that investors would rather pay more for an asset in the future than to pay less today and have to store the asset. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012

Problem 5.26 The spot price of oil is $80 per barrel and the cost of storing a barrel of oil is $3, payable at the end of the year. The risk-free rate of interest is 5% per annum, compounded continuously. That is the upper bound for the one-year futures price of oil? Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012