3 Astrology …lots and lots and lots of math. 2/18/1996

3 Goals Is astrology a science? Why should we care? Is science just another belief?

3 Theories So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

3 Non-scientific Theories Make no predictions Un-testable Can’t be falsified

3 Non-scientific Theories Cholesterol too high?  Aliens are clogging your arteries with invisible probes. Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat bland food. Cholesterol too high?  Gods must be angry. Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

3 Non-scientific Theories Viking Orbiter (1976)Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

3 Falsification A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it. –Not so proponents of: Face on Mars Moon Hoax Astrologers

3 Concept Test Consider the following theory. Why does it not satisfy the requirements of a scientific theory? “The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance; a higher intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design).” a.It contradicts the theory of evolution. b.It makes no prediction which can be tested. c.It assumes there is something we don’t understand. d.It assumes there is a God. e.It doesn’t rely upon any observations.

3 Recap Science is a way of making theories to explain the physical world. Scientific theories: –Explain what is already seen –Predict what can be seen in the future. Predictions can be tested. Scientific theories can be falsified.

3 Astrology The date, time, (and place) of birth affect: –Your personality –Your actions –Events that will affect your life Horoscopes appear in most papers. Millions of people read them daily.

3 Astrology Like other “-ologies”, is it a science? –Explain what is seen? –Make predictions? Does it work? What test would falsify astrology?

3 Astrology Tests Come up with a test of astrology. Using no more than: –People in this room. –Available newspapers (past or present). –Time available.

3 Does Astrology Work? Does it pass the test? Does it work better than chance? Does it matter? “One of the other prime uses of astrology is in connection with the basic psychology of children and recognizing in children, at an early age, a basis for later psychological difficulties. The horoscope is perhaps the best method to reveal these tendencies while the child is still in infancy. When parents know from the beginning where the seeds of difficulties lie in the child's life, early care and training might mitigate much later unhappiness.” - The Cosmic Palette: Astrology 101 by Haizen Paige

3 Science vs. Astrology Scientists are skeptical of astrology because: a.It takes power out of the hands of scientists. b.It can’t be tested. c.It has failed when tested. d.It proposes forces that are non-physical. e.It threatens our belief in a knowable universe. But no one believes astrology so who cares?

3 Astrology and the President (TIME, May 16, 1988) -- “The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back as In 1981 [Joan] Quigley made Nancy [Reagan] a believer …. And from then on, no presidential public appearance was slated without the Friend's say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to influence the President's schedule. For the Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the charts of both men and determined that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).” “[Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and others make a compelling case that in 1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the scheduling process, Regan said in an interview with TIME last week, ‘began to interfere with the normal conduct of the presidency.’” (TIME, May 16, 1988)

3 Homework #3 Due Monday 16-Jan: Read Sg2 The Harmony of Worlds from Cosmos and B5.3 1.Some assert that Kepler’s discovery represents the true birth of science as it is now practiced. Describe why one would assert this (put your answer in the context of this week’s discussion)? 2.Bennett, Chapter 5, Problem 23