The Decision-Making Process IT Brainpower Introduction DECISION SUPPORT AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Brainpower for Your Business Types of Decisions The Decision-Making Process IT Brainpower How IT Brainpower Supports the Decision-Making Process

TYPES OF DECISIONS YOU FACE STRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with a set of steps that guarantee the correct solution. NONSTRUCTURED DECISIONS - those with no rules or criteria that guarantee a good solution. RECURRING DECISIONS - those you make repeatedly, often periodically. NONRECURRING DECISIONS - those you make infrequently, perhaps only once.

PHASES OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS 1. INTELLIGENCE -Find what to fix 2. DESIGN - Find fixes 3. CHOICE - Pick a fix 4. IMPLEMENTATION - Apply the fix

TYPES OF IT BRAINPOWER Decision Support Systems (DSS) Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Artificial Intelligence Systems (AI) Expert Systems Neural Networks Genetic Algorithms Intelligent Agents

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS) is a highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured. A DSS assists you in making a decision, as opposed to making the decision for you.

A DSS Can Help With Analysis Tasks Like Deciding where to spend advertising dollars Analyzing sales trend information Analyzing drug interactions Developing airline schedules Pricing products

A DSS Has Three Components DATA MANAGEMENT - to allow you to store and access information. MODEL MANAGEMENT - to allow you to store and access models. USER INTERFACE MANAGEMENT - to allow you to easily manipulate information and models.

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSS 5-11 DSS STEPS IN DEVELOPING A DSS 1.INTELLIGENCE Do you need a DSS? What should it do? What does it need? 2.DESIGN What can you buy/build? 3.CHOICE What will you buy/build? 4.IMPLEMENTATION Build or install DSS Learn, test, and evaluate the DSS

A GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (GDSS) is a type of decision support system that facilitates the formulation of and solution to problems by a team. A GDSS helps a team to generate ideas, identify strengths and weaknesses, choose an alternative, and reach a consensus.

A GDSS Can Help With Team Tasks Like Determining new product design Evaluating the impact of new competition Formulating a strategic plan

THE STEPS OF GROUP DECISION MAKING GDSS THE STEPS OF GROUP DECISION MAKING 1.Brainstorming - generate ideas 2.Issue Categorization and Analysis - classify ideas 3.Ranking and Voting - prioritize alternatives, reach consensus See Figure 5.9, page 174

PEOPLE IN A GDSS Team: People united by a common goal GDSS facilitator has two roles Nontechnical: run the meeting Technical: operate IT components

IT TOOLS IN A GDSS Groupware - software than enables team work DSS Capabilities - software that enables team decision making Telecommunications - hardware and software that connect computers

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) GDSS A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) is a decision support system designed specifically to work with spatial information. A GIS represents information thematically in overlapping layers, each of which shows a different aspect of the total picture.

A GIS Can Help With Spatial Analysis Tasks Like GDSS A GIS Can Help With Spatial Analysis Tasks Like Identifying the best site to locate a branch office Targeting pockets of potential customers Repositioning promotions and advertising

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) is the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior. AI helps machines perform tasks that require complex and varying sets of steps such as retrieving debris from the ocean floor.

TYPES OF AI USED IN BUSINESS EXPERT SYSTEMS NEURAL NETWORKS GENETIC ALGORITHMS INTELLIGENT AGENTS 70% of the top 500 companies use AI as part of decision support.

Expert System AN EXPERT SYSTEM is an artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion. An expert system captures expertise from a human expert and applies it to a problem. Auditing and tax planning Diagnosing illnesses Managing forest resources

WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN DO Provide consistency in decision making Provide new information Reduce costs Handle massive amounts of information Reduce errors Improve customer service

WHAT EXPERT SYSTEMS CAN’T DO Handle all types of domain expertise Solve problems other than those for which they are designed Apply common sense or judgment to a problem

Neural Network A NEURAL NETWORK is an artificial intelligence system which is capable of learning because it’s patterned after the human brain. A neural network simulates the human ability to classify things based on the experience of seeing many examples.

A Neural Network Can Perform Pattern Recognition Tasks Like Distinguishing different chemical compounds Detecting anomalies in human tissue that may signify disease Reading handwriting Detecting fraud in credit card use

Genetic Algorithm A GENETIC ALGORITHM is an artificial intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest processes to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem. Genetic algorithms produce several generations of solutions, choosing the best of the current set for each new generation.

A Genetic Algorithm Can Generate Lots of Solutions As In Generating human faces based on a few known features. Generating solutions to routing problems. Generating stock portfolios.

Intelligent Agent AN INTELLIGENT AGENT is an artificial intelligence system that can move around your computer or network performing repetitive tasks independently, adapting itself to your preferences. An intelligent agent is like a travel agent in that it performs tasks that you stipulate.

An Intelligent Agent Can Perform Tasks Like Acting as a personal electronic assistant to collect, send, and prioritize electronic information such as e-mail. Finding and retrieving information from a database. Finding and retrieving information across networks.

How Does an Intelligent Agent Do That? An intelligent agent (usually) combines the capabilities of two or more of the most modern software technologies such as expert systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms, object-oriented programming, and so on.

AI Starting Information Expert’s know-how Acceptable patterns Set of possible solutions Your preferences AI System Expert Systems Neural Networks Genetic Algorithms Intelligent Agents Problem Type Diagnostic or prescriptive Identification, classification, prediction Optimal solution Specific and repetitive tasks Based On Strategies of experts The human brain Biological evolution One or more AI techniques

AI SYSTEMS CAN BE COMBINED WITH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS IT Brainpower AI SYSTEMS CAN BE COMBINED WITH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS DSSs can incorporate one or more expert systems creating an intelligent DSS, a DSS/ES, or a knowledge-based DSS. Neural networks can be combined with GISs to apply pattern recognition capabilities to spatial information.

A HYBRID INTELLIGENT SYSTEM IT Brainpower A HYBRID INTELLIGENT SYSTEM is an IT system which combines two or more artificial intelligence systems. Neural networks and expert systems can be combined to create a “trainable” expert system. Neural networks and genetic algorithms can be combined to train neural networks.