It is actually way more exciting than it sounds!!!! Research Methods It is actually way more exciting than it sounds!!!!

Why do we have to learn this stuff? Psychology is first and foremost a science. Thus it is based in research. Be aware however of two hurdles that tend to skew our logic when we research

Hindsight Bias The tendency to Consider findings to be Monday Morning Quarterbacking!!! Example:

Overconfidence Overconfidence – 82% of U.S. drivers consider themselves to be in the top 30% of their group in terms of safety. 81% of new business owners felt they had an excellent chance of their businesses succeeding. When asked about the success of their peers, the answer was only 39%. (Now that's overconfidence!!!)

Overconfidence “There is no reason for anyone to have a computerin their home.” (Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977)   “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”(Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, 1895) “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.”(United Artists executive when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964) “A severe depression like that of 1920–1921 is outside the range of probability.” (Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, November 16, 1929) “Man will never reach the Moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.” (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957)

The Scientific Attitude Three main components

Critical Thinking Critical Thinking – “Smart thinking” Four elements Examines Detects Evaluates Assesses Empirical Approach

Scientific Method Theory – Often starts as an hypothesis Developed through repeated observation and testing Example: Hypothesis – Usually written in an If/Then statement Explains what you expect will happen

Hypothesis Practice A researcher is evaluating the effectiveness of a new physical education program for elementary school children. The program is designed to reduce competition. There is some evidence to suggest that participation in class can have an effect on human memory. A researcher plans to use a standardized AP Psych exam to evaluate the effects of class participation.

3Types of Research Descriptive Experimental Correlational

3 Types of Descriptive Research The Case Study The Survey Naturalistic Observation

Case Studies Provides oppty to study unusual cases in depth Offers suggestions for further study Results often can’t be Can’t establish Example: The ideal case study was John and Kate. Really interesting, but are they typical of all families

Case Study Methodology Gather data from one person (or small group) through:

Naturalistic Observation Do not manipulate the environment. May be done when it is not ethical to manipulate variables Does not show Example: Jane Goodall’s research on chimpanzees

Survey Gather Data – Personal facts Behaviors Attitudes Opinions

Survey Method Method: Questionnaire Interview Example: On ave. how many hours do you study per night? What is your grade point ave?

Conducting a Survey Population - Random Sampling – Example: Ensures that the participants are Helps avoid false generalizations

Survey Method: The Bad Low Response Rate Response Bias/social desirability bias – Wording Effects – How accurate would a survey be about the frequency of diarrhea?

Wording Effects Do you think it is important for America to provide aid to the needy? Should the government not allow televised cigarette ads?

Think Pair Share A researcher wants to investigate people's attitudes toward violence on television. Explain which of the following research methods the researcher should use and why: case study, survey, or naturalistic observation. A researcher wants to investigate sharing behaviors of young children. Explain which research method the researcher would use and why. Provide a brief explanation on how the research would be conducted.

Correlational Method Correlation - Can be efficient Measures how well one variable predicts the other Used when ethics prohibit experimentation Can be efficient Can make predictions Can use pre-existing or archival data Make it difficult to assess the impact of a third variable Does not show As more ice cream is eaten, more people are murdered. Does ice cream cause murder, or murder cause people to eat ice cream?

Results of Correlational Studies Positive Correlation The variables go in Negative Correlation The variables go in Example: Example:

Correlation Coefficient Range is from -1 to +1 The relationship gets weaker the closer you get to (+) tells you the variables (-)tells you the variables are Scatterplot – shown as a graphed cluster of dots Which is a stronger correlation? -.13 or +.38 -.72 or +.59 -.91 or +.04

Which of the following would be a negative correlation, and which would be a positive Education and years in jail Weight and hours of TV watched Education and income Holding babies and crying Food and calories ingested

Correlation

The table below lists the scores of eight research participants on a test to measure anxiety, as well as the typical number of cigarettes each person smokes daily. Scores on the anxiety test can range anywhere from a low of 0 (indicating very low anxiety) to a high of 30 (indicating very high anxiety). Research Anxiety Cigarettes Participant Test Score____________ 1 8 11 2 9 3 3 15 11 4 14 16 5 21 26 6 12 10 7 22 24 8 17 18 Construct a scatterplot to represent the correlation between smoking and anxiety. Describe the direction of the correlation and give two possible explanations for it.

Correlation Illusory Correlations

Think Pair Share Speaking at a college graduation ceremony, Professor Robson compared college graduates with adults who are less educated. She correctly noted that college graduates pay more taxes, vote more frequently, engage in more volunteer activities in their communities, and are less likely to go to jail than less-educated adults. The professor concluded that colleges obviously do great things for society. How might you reasonably challenge the way the professor reached her conclusion?

Experimental Method Experiment – Advantages: Shows Can verify results Can eliminate bias Disadvantage: Smoking causes health issues.

Theory Theory - An explanation that organizes observation and predicts behaviors or events A hunch Example:

Hypothesis Hypothesis - Example:

Operational Definitions Meaning of hypothesis measure a variable Must be clear and precise Must be Allow experiment to be Example: Participation Higher Score -

Independent Variable Example: Independent Variable - Whatever is being manipulated in the experiment. If there is a drug in an experiment, the drug is almost always the independent variable.

Dependent Variable Dependent Variable – It is dependent on the independent variable. Example: The dependent variable would be the effect of the drug.

Hypothesis and Operational Definitions Study: A scientist wants to study whether people who make more money are happier Identify: Hypothesis Operational Definitions IV DV Study: A scientist wants to study whether or not people who drink become more aggressive. Identify the following:

Assignment Random Assignment Examples: Minimizes differences between two groups Different than Random Sample Reduces the impact of Experimental Group – Control Group – Examples: Experimental – Control group –

Beware of Confounding Variables Confounds often arise due to differences between the groups that exist before the independent variable is imposed! Examples:

2 important confounding variables Experimenter Bias - Example: - Placebo effect – Example:

Double-blind Procedure Minimizes

Replication Replication – What helps the researcher to insure the study can be replicated?

Quasi-experimental Quasi-experimental Used to study differences between: Confounding variables so no cause and effect

Controlled Observation Conditions are contrived by researcher Independent and dependent variable Does not show cause and effect Early Psych Research

Think Pair Share Design an experiment to test whether alcohol consumption influences people's tendency to become socially aggressive. In your experimental design, identify the following experimental elements and procedures: hypothesis, random sampling, random assignment, experimental group, control group, independent variable, and dependent variable.

Statistics Recording the results from our studies. Must use a common language so we all know what we are talking about.

Descriptive Statistics Examples: Frequency Polygon Frequency Histogram

Measures of Central Tendency Mode - Mean - Median -

Central Tendency Watch out for extreme scores or outliers. Mean, Median and Mode. Let’s look at the salaries of the employees at Dunder Mifflen Paper in Scranton: $25,000-Pam $25,000- Kevin $25,000- Angela $100,000- Andy $100,000- Dwight $200,000- Jim $300,000- Michael The median salary looks good at $_______________________ The mean salary also looks good at about $________________ But the mode salary is only $___________________________ Watch out for extreme scores or outliers. ____________________is a better measure than the mean when there are extremes/outliers

Normal Distribution In a normal distribution, the Examples:

Distributions Outliers skew distributions. Positive Skew – Mean is higher than median, so median better measure of central tendency Negative Skew – Mean is lower than median, so median better measure of central tendency If most students scored well on a test, what would the distribution look like? If most students scored poorly? What does the data tell us?

Measures of variability Range: Standard Deviation: The higher the variance or SD, the more spread out the distribution is. Do scientists want a big or small SD? Variance - The average of the squared differences from the mean Shaq and Kobe may both score 30 ppg (same mean). But their SDs are very different…meaning?

Calculating Standard Deviation Step 1 – calculate the mean – add all of the raw scores and divide by the # of scores Step 2 – calculate the deviation from the mean by subtracting each of the raw scores from the mean Step 3 – square the deviation from the mean for each score Step 4 – Sum the squared deviations Step 5 – divide the sum of the squared deviation by the number of scores and find the square root

Calculating the Standard Deviation

Calculating the Standard Deviation your turn Scores – 10, 3, 7, 8, 7 Step 1 – calculate the mean – add the all of the raw scores and divide by the # of scores Step 2 – calculate the deviation from the mean by subtracting each of the raw scores from the mean Step 3 – square the deviation from the mean for each score Step 4 – Sum the squared deviations Step 5 – divide the sum of the squared deviation by the number of scores and find the square root

Variance Variance - The average of the squared differences from the Mean. = Standard Deviation2 Tells you the same thing as Standard Deviation—how consistent/reliable the data is Example: Standard Deviation = 5 Variance = *if you know the variance, how can you calculate the standard deviation?

Scores Z Scores – Observation – Mean Standard Deviation 10-15 = -1 5 10-15 = -1 5 Equals 0 at the mean A positive z score = negative z score = Example: If John scored a 72 on a test with a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 8, John’s z score would be?

Normal Distribution What is the probability an observation is less than the z score or more than the z score?

Normal Distribution Calculating the probability that scores are above or below the mean Step 1 – calculate the mean Step 2 - calculate/find the standard deviation or variance. If you only have the variance you must calculate the standard deviation Step 3 draw a normal distribution curve and find the scores for each standard deviation from the mean and place them on the graph Step 4: calculating the % of students who scored within a range of scores by finding the corresponding scores on the curve, then add the percentages from each standard deviation.

Inferential Statistics Inferential Statistics - The purpose is to discover whether the finding can be Statistical Significance – the observed difference between the means of the experimental and control group Measured by P-value= .05 5% likely the results are due to chance or 95% confidence level the results are due to the independent variable You can apply the findings to the population What does a p-value= .80 mean?

Statistical Significance Key Ideas The bigger the difference between groups the less likely it’s due to chance (regardless of sample size) Sample size matters. This is known as the "law of large numbers." The larger the sample size, the smaller an observed difference has to be in order to be statistically significant. The smaller the sample size, the larger an observed difference would have to be in order to be statistically significant. Small sample, small difference not likely to be statistically significant

Descriptive vs. Inferential Statistics Help researches draw conclusions from data Statistical Significance P < .05 Answers: Did the independent variable cause changes in the dependent variable? Should the Hypothesis be supported or rejected? Can I apply my findings to the general population? Descriptive used to describe summarize a data set Make use of averages Mean Median Mode Address dispersion – how widely the individual data points are likely to be from the mean Standard Deviation Variance

APA Ethical Guidelines for Research IRB- Both for humans and animals.

Animal Research Clear Treated Acquired Least

Human Research

Milgram’s Study Random Assignment: Hypothesis: Population Sample IV DV Op Def: DV Random Assignment:

Milgram’s Experiment Criticized for of participants followed the orders to the maximum shock level

Milgram’s Experiment Obedience High Obedience Lower