United States Politics 1 Public Opinion and Polling

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 2 Perspectives on Polling ◊Polling as a measure of opinion ◊Sources and patterns of opinion ◊Techniques of polling ◊Political uses and implications of polling

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 3 Polling Measures Opinion ◊Many ways for public to express opinion ◊Polling is a technique for measuring what the public thinks ◊Public opinion polling is therefore NOT the same as public opinion.  Public opinion is “the distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues” (Edwards, p. 178)  Public-opinion polls are “scientific instruments for measuring public opinion” (Ginsberg, p. 222)

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 4 Sources and Patterns of Opinion ◊Sources: political socialization  Process by which basic political beliefs and attitudes are acquired (e.g. partisanship, ideology)  specific views on candidates, policies channeled by socialization, but shaped by media, etc.  Basic beliefs shaped by “agents of socialization” Family and school Media? Peers? ◊Patterns: political ideology  “coherent, organized set of political beliefs and attitudes”  E.g. “conservative”, “liberal”, “progressive”, “moderate”

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 5 Polling: Definition and Key Elements ◊“”scientific instruments for measuring public opinion” (Ginsberg, p. 222) ◊“A type of survey or inquiry into public opinion conducted by interviewing a random sample of people. “ (Roper Center) ◊Key elements  Random sample  Responses to questions  Wording and order  Timing

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 6 Getting a Random Sample ◊Cannot poll everyone, so a sample is chosen ( ) ◊should be random ◊Typical method: Random digit dialing ◊Random sample creates “margin of error” of 3-4% ◊Problems with “response rate”

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 7 Responding to Questions ◊Most polls are multiple choice, not short answer  “strongly agree, somewhat agree” etc.  Preference A, B or C ◊Pollsters write the questions and the answers  respondents choose from options  respondents pushed to choose ◊“Focus groups” as alternative, preparation ◊The “illusion of saliency”

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 8 Wording and Order ◊Wording  To be accurate, cannot use “loaded” terms  Pollsters have to test question wording to avoid distortion ◊Order  First choices in a particular question more attractive if opinion unformed  Order of questions in a poll can influence answers ◊

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 9 Timing ◊Events can shape opinion  e.g. effect of 9/11 on President Bush’s approval ratings  If events happen during poll, responses may be different for later respondents ◊Polls therefore usually conducted over 2- 3 nights

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 10 How to do a good poll ◊Pick a random sample ◊Get enough responses ◊Use question wording that tests the opinion, not reaction to the question. ◊Conduct the poll quickly ◊Hire professionals ◊Spend a lot of money!

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 11 Public Opinion: Who Wants to Know? ◊Polling is expensive ◊Polling doesn’t express opinion – polling measures it ◊Who benefits from measuring public opinion? ◊Who’s willing to spend thousands of dollars and why?

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 12 Political Uses of Polls ◊Targeting campaign efforts ◊Deciding how to “sell” policies ◊Pressuring politicians to act ◊“Push polling” (an abuse)

June 10, 2015 United States Politics 13 Polls and Public Opinion ◊Polls significant because public opinion significant ◊Other ways of expressing opinion are active ◊The “public” in opinion polling is reactive ◊Polling is an extractive industry