Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games W. James Steenburgh Department of Meteorology and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction University of Utah

Acknowledgments  Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator  John Horel, Professor  Steven Lazarus. Assistant Research Professor  Daryl Onton. Postdoctoral Fellow  Carol Ciliberti, Judy Pechmann, Mike Splitt, Bryan White. Research Associates  Grad & Undergrad Students  Salt Lake City NWSFO staff and Western Region SSD personnel  NWS/KSL Olympic Weather Support forecast team  Dan Judd, Judd Communications  MesoWest data providers and collaborators  FSL developers of LDAD & FX-Net

Northern Utah topography Great Salt Lake Great Salt Lake Desert Stansbury Mts Oquirrh Mts Wasatch Range SLC Olympic Region 50 km Elevation (m)

The 2002 Olympic region Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Weather affects the Olympics  Competition delays & postponements  Transportation (ground and air)  Spectator safety & comfort  Medical emergency response  Security  Venue engineering  Environmental quality/air pollution  Broadcasting/Ceremonies/ Look of the Games/Cultural Events SLOC UDOT

Specific weather concerns  Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake effect”  Wasatch Mts average cm ( ”) of snow annually  Alta averages 49 days per year with at least 12.5 cm of snowfall Annual SWE (cm, colorfill) and snowfall (annotated)

Specific weather concerns  High winds at valley and mountain locations Gap, downslope, or ridge-top winds; other terrain-induced flows Areas where strong ridge-top winds are a concern Gap winds Downslope winds Ski Jump venue (sensitive to moderate winds and gusts)

Specific weather concerns  Valley inversions/cold pools Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility and air quality (PM-10) Good Bad Ugly

Specific weather concerns  Extreme warm or cold temperatures  Lightning  Avalanches Westwide Avalanche Network B. Tremper D. Judd

Past weather during the Olympic Period Icy roads led to numerous accidents in the Salt Lake Valley Record high temp (58F) at Heber. Little snow at X-C venue Hurricane force winds. Semis blown over on I Severe weather with lightning. Park City schools closed. 22. Snowstorm during commute- over 100 accidents. Airport runways closed Blizzard conditions. 50 car pileup near Point of the Mountain feet of snow at Parley’s Summit with blizzard conditions Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys; heavy snow on slopes. Record high minimum temp (51F) at SLC mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding 24 Avalanches close Little Cottonwood

Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances  Atmospheric monitoring –Venue observations –Regional weather network  Computer modeling –Integration of weather observations –“High-resolution” forecasts –Point-specific venue forecasts  Basic research –Lake-effect snowstorms –Mountain snowfall –Valley inversions/cold pools

Olympic venue observing network Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

 Ownd by Forest Service Snowbasin, NOAA, U of Utah  Ogden Peak (OGP)  Wildcat (SWI)  Middle Bowl (SNI)  Strawberry Base (SB1)  Strawberry Top (SB2)  Along venue courses –Mt Allen (SBB-top of men’s DH) –John Paul (SBW – mid course) –Shooting Star (SSS – mid course) –Base (SBE – finish/stadium) SB1 SB2 SNI SWI OGP SSS SBE SBW SBB (Photo: Mike Powell/ALLSPORT) Venue observations at Snowbasin

Venue weather web interface

 Collects and integrates observations from 2900 stations and over 70 organizations  Data processed with graphical products generated every 15 minutes Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)

 278 stations in northern Utah Olympic region  Improves analysis and forecasting of regional and local weather systems Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)

Data assimilation and analysis Surface temperature and wind flow Weather conditions along I-80 Parley’s Canyon SLC

High resolution computer modeling  3x daily 36-h forecasts at 4-km grid spacing detail future local weather conditions 36 km 12 km 4 km

Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations 03/18 04/0604/00 04/12 05/0004/18  Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical techniques  Forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation every hour

Basic Research  Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX) Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms  Lake-effect snowstorms Improved knowledge and prediction  Vertical Transport and Mixing Program (VTMX) Meteorological conditions that affect air quality in the Salt Lake Valley

Sample of findings  Causes of lake-effect snowbands  Structure of Wasatch Mountain winter storms Snowbasin Weber Canyon Ogden Canyon

Weather Forecasting for the Olympics A Team Effort University of Utah Forecast Support KSL Forecast Team Venue Forecasting National Weather Service Public Forecasts/Warnings

What will be the legacy after the Olympics?  Improved weather monitoring and forecasting tools will continue to be used by the National Weather Service and other meteorolgists during all seasons  Improved knowledge of Intermountain weather  The Olympic experience will identify areas where observations, computer models, or understanding is needed to improve forecasting in the future

Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information  