National and State Polling in the 2008 Presidential Election Travis N. Ridout Washington State University.

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Presentation transcript:

National and State Polling in the 2008 Presidential Election Travis N. Ridout Washington State University

The Electoral College 538 electoral college votes Each state has 2+number of House seats 270 needed to win

Some problems with polls Lack of surveys Quality of pollsters

New Problems in 2008 Who will turn out to vote? - African-American turnout - Effect of mobilization - Young people Bradley Effect Cell phone-only users

Other Developments Polling has become almost instantaneous More ubiquitous than ever

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