The science of climate change Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government British Council/Warsaw University Centre for Environmental Studies 30 March 2005

Source: NASA The earth’s energy budget

Carbon cycles

Glacial cycles of past 800,000 years Source: Nature Vol 429

Source University of Berne and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Carbon dioxide levels over the last 60,000 years 379ppm 2004

Simulated global warming Observed simulated by model Temperature rise degrees C Source: Hadley Centre

Annual European summer temperatures Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C Summer 2003 value Annual average Smoothed trend Model – natural factors only Source: Hadley Centre

Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s

Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project – key findings Continuing with existing policies is not an option – risk becomes unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios considered The risks can be reduced to present day levels using a broad portfolio of responses There are difficult decisions to be taken: –Invest more in sustainable approaches –Adapt to increased flooding

Mitigation - creating a low carbon economy UK White Paper published February Overall objectives are: –To put the UK on a path to cut CO 2 emissions by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by 2020 –To maintain the reliability of energy supplies –To promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond –To tackle fuel poverty

…and a diverse mix of renewables Improved energy efficiency…

G8 and EU challenges Climate Change is a UK priority for G8 and EU Presidencies in 2005 (African development is the other key priority) Climate change is a global problem and requires a global response –Kyoto, European Emissions trading Clear vision of energy futures required to enable global collaboration to move forward Science, engineering and technology have key roles to play