Sensitivity Analysis of SST along NJ coast with ADROMS Weifeng (Gordon) Zhang John Wilkin Julia Levin Hernan Arango Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences,

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Presentation transcript:

Sensitivity Analysis of SST along NJ coast with ADROMS Weifeng (Gordon) Zhang John Wilkin Julia Levin Hernan Arango Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University Oct. 2005

Background  Plenty of measurement in New Jersey shore area;  Ocean forecast and hind-cast with forward ROMS has been running;  To use data assimilation in these area to improve the forecast and measurement;  Adjoint sensitivity analysis with ADROMS is applied first to test the model based on our understanding of the physics in this area.  Adjoint sensitivity analysis: What causes the event?

Forward Model – Background for Adjoint model Three idealized cases (steady low river discharge, no tide, no surface exchange): No wind Southwestward wind Northeastward wind

Adjoint sensitivity set-up For upwelling event: Background state: 5 days bi-hourly forward model output. Event time: Adjoint forcing: Adjoint variable: FORWARD_MIXING: Adjoint model reads mixing coefficients from forward output

No wind case

Nowind case (cont’d) Adjoint variableMagnitude of adjoint variable Standard deviation of variable ad_SST(0, 0.02)50.1 ad_SSS(-0.002, 0.002)50.01 ad_u/ad_v(-0.05, 0.05) ad_Akv(-100, 100) ad_Akt(0, 60) ad_Aks(-3, 3)10 -5

Southward wind case

Southward wind case (cont’d) Adjoint variableMagnitude of adjoint variable Standard deviation of variable ad_SST(0, 0.02)50.1 ad_SSS(-0.005, 0.005) ad_sustr/ad_svstr (-100, 100) ad_u/ad_v(-0.05, 0.05) ad_Akv(-150, 150) ad_Akt(0, 15) ad_Aks(-10, 5)

Northward wind case

Northward wind case (cont’d)

Summary  ADROMS gives physically reasonable results for sensitivity analysis on idealized application in NJ shore area  Users need to think about the definition of the measure of certain event, J  The validity of linearization to the nonlinear model has to be considered carefully and proved first ______________________________________________________ Great appreciation goes to John Wilkin, Hernan Arango, Julia Levin, Andrew Moore and B-J Choi!