Forecasting 5 June 2001. Introduction What: Forecasting Techniques Where: Determine Trends Why: Make better decisions.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting 5 June 2001

Introduction What: Forecasting Techniques Where: Determine Trends Why: Make better decisions

What is Forecasting? The art and science of predicting future events

Time Horizon Short Range – 3 – 12 months Medium Range – 3 months – 3 years Long Range – 3+ years

Qualitative Methods Jury of Executive Opinion Sales Force Composite Delphi Consumer Marketing Survey

Quantitative Methods Time Series Associative

Time Series Methods Trend Seasonality Cycle Random Variations

Naïve Approach

Moving Average Approach MA n n  Demand in Previous Periods Periods

Weighted Moving Average WMA = Σ(Weight for period n) (Demand in period n) ΣWeights

Exponential Smoothing F t = F t-1 +  (A t-1 - F t-1 )

MAD

MSE

Exponential Smoothing With Trend Adjustment F t =  (A t ) + (1-  )F t-1 + T t-1 T t =  (F t - F t-1 ) + (1-  )T t-1

Linear Trend Projection Equation: Slope: Y-Intercept:

Seasonal Variations

Regression Analysis Equation: Slope: Y-Intercept:

Standard Error of Estimate

Correlation Coefficient