“Peak Oil” – It’s coming Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia.

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Presentation transcript:

“Peak Oil” – It’s coming Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia

It can’t be ignored

Why does it matter?

Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for Australia Source: Energy White Paper 2004

ASPO Australia aims to: encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas

ASPO Australia Working Groups Oil & gas industry Biofuels Indigenous & Remote Communities Agriculture, fisheries & food Finance & economics Urban & transport planning Social services Active transport Construction industry Health sector Defence + working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA

How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)

What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil? Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)

Recent oil price fluctuations

Unreliability of ABARE forecasts

VAMPIRE (Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)

Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)

Domestic freight task % moved by mode

Alternative transport fuels? Renewables Biofuels Conventional oil Unconventional oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear Hydrogen

Conclusions Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil) The age of cheap oil is almost over Short-term urgency in planning for post-oil age More mitigation options in cities than in rural areas

What to do? Commonwealth to become involved “Do nothing” not an option No magic bullet ASPO Australia advocates –community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system Leadership required Buy time!

For further information –Sydney Peak Oil Group –ASPO Australia –over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply & alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html –ASPO –(one of many good international sites for Peak Oil info)