Conclusions Phenomena with periods of years have strong impact on climate and marine ecosystems * Natural variability confuses global warming and over-exploitation issues (are they occurring and what are the impacts?) The next twenty years might tell the story (La Vieja=cool but if warming continues…) Highlights the need for a global observing system for ocean ecology * Analysis of fish scale records in the sediments hint at 100 year cycles

Thoughts Spatial coherence scales; do we really need the CalCOFI scale? Maybe the question is how often do we need it. Global primary production varies interannually by ~10% but local/regional PP can change by +/-50%. Further, conversion of PP to fish can change by orders of magnitude? The transfer of carbon/energy from primary producers to harvestable ocean resources IS NOT well understood. On the basis of ECOPATH one might predict a significant increase in (sinking detritus and therefore) carbon sequestration as a result of an order of magnitude decrease in fish populations. Increases in anoxia, jellyfish etc. Should we be looking for more of these? The divide between (conservation) trees and (fundamental) bushes is large; does gloom and doom amplify the divide and might it be a better strategy to argue the positives: species can recover and management can increase yield

La Vieja ( ) minus El Viejo ( )