Temperature (ºC) wind field at 200hPa Performance of the HadRM3P model for downscaling of present climate in South American Lincoln Muniz Alves*, José.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO.

Advertisements

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections over Mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 Using PRECIS 2.0 Changgui Wang, Richard Jones.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Task: (ECSK06) Regional downscaling Regional modelling with HadGEM3-RA driven by HadGEM2-AO projections National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/KMA.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION SCENARIOS ON SOUTHERN AFRICAN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST SKILL Willem A. Landman Asmerom Beraki.

Progress in Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios in Idaho Brandon C. Moore.

Artificial Neural Network using for climate extreme in La-Plata Basin: Preliminary results and objectives David Mendes * José Antonio Marengo * Chou Sin.

Delayed onset of the South American Monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University I. INTRODUCTION Climate.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate.

Assessment of Future Change in Temperature and Precipitation over Pakistan (Simulated by PRECIS RCM for A2 Scenario) Siraj Ul Islam, Nadia Rehman.

Current and planned Project with the Regional Climate Model Regional climate simulations over southern South America and sensitivity experiments Silvina.

1 Regional Climate Change Summary of TAR Findings How well do the Models Work at Regional Scales? Some Preliminary Simulation Results Understanding Climate.

COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS.

Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.

Rongqian Yang, Ken Mitchell, Jesse Meng Impact of Different Land Models & Different Initial Land States on CFS Summer and Winter Reforecasts Acknowledgment.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

NARCCAP Users Meeting April 2011 Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based on Mearns et al. (BAMS, 2011) Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based.

THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011 HUI-LING WU and CHIH-HUI SHIAO.

Development of a downscaling prediction system Liqiang Sun International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

South American Monsoon System: Past, Present, and Future: A33D-01 Developments on the functioning, characteristics and variability of the South American.

Uncertainty in climate scenarios when downscaling with an RCM M. Tadross, B. Hewitson, W Gutowski & AF07 collaborators Water Research Commission of South.

1 Climate Ensemble Simulations and Projections for Vietnam using PRECIS Model Presented by Hiep Van Nguyen Main contributors: Mai Van Khiem, Tran Thuc,

Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) São Paulo, Brazil ( Integrated observed and modeled atmospheric water budget.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

Downscaling and its limitation on climate change impact assessments Sepo Hachigonta University of Cape Town South Africa “Building Food Security in the.

Building Asian Climate Change Scenarios by Multi-Regional Climate Models Ensemble S. Wang, D. Lee, J. McGregor, W. Gutowski, K. Dairaku, X. Gao, S. Hong,

Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture Sam Gameda and Budong Qian Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa,

Simulation of present-day climate of tropical Africa Using the Hadley Centre regional climate modeling system AIACC AF 20 Project Andre F. KAMGA, Gregory.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager – Impacts Model.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

Rongqian Yang, Kenneth Mitchell, Jesse Meng NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Summer and Winter Season Reforecast Experiments with the NCEP Coupled.

INTERANUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LA PLATA BASIN AND EL NINO (CANONICAL AND MODOKI) - BEHAVIOR OF HADLEY AND GFDL MODELS Renata G. Tedeschi 1.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

The climate and climate variability of the wind power resource in the Great Lakes region of the United States Sharon Zhong 1 *, Xiuping Li 1, Xindi Bian.

11 Predictability of Monsoons in CFS V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton, MD.

Climate Scenario and Uncertainties in the Caribbean Chen,Cassandra Rhoden,Albert Owino Anthony Chen,Cassandra Rhoden,Albert Owino Climate Studies Group.

COST 723 WORKSHOP – SOFIA, BULGARIA MAY 2006 USE OF RADIOSONDE DATA FOR VALIDATION OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING SIMULATIONS OVER CYPRUS Panos Hadjinicolaou.

Interannual Variability of the Rainy Season in the Tropics of South America Brant Liebmann NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Boulder, Colorado, USA.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 January 2010 For more information,

How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? The return!! Rosmeri P. da Rocha and Tércio Ambrizzi University.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

NARCCAP Meeting September 2009 Results from NCEP-driven RCMs ~ Overview ~ Results from NCEP-driven RCMs ~ Overview ~ William J. Gutowski, Jr. & Raymond.

© Crown copyright Met Office Downscaling ability of the HadRM3P model over North America Wilfran Moufouma-Okia and Richard Jones.

John Mejia and K.C. King, Darko Koracin Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4th NARCCAP Workshop, Boulder, CO, April,

Welcome to the PRECIS training workshop

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 December 2010 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System Summary September 2012-May 2013 Prepared June 2013 by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP In collaboration with Instituto.

Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal Climate Prediction over South America The Final Chapter??? Tércio Ambrizzi and Rosmeri P. da Rocha University of São.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 April 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 February 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 December2016 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

High resolution climate simulations and future change over Vietnam

With special thanks to Prof. V. Moron (U

Climate Science Research

On HRM3 (a.k.a. HadRM3P, a.k.a. PRECIS) North American simulations

Climate Change and Projection for Asia

Presentation transcript:

Temperature (ºC) wind field at 200hPa Performance of the HadRM3P model for downscaling of present climate in South American Lincoln Muniz Alves*, José A. Marengo* *Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil (Contact: SCIENCE GOAL A regional program led by CPTEC/INPE is CREAS (Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America). CREAS represents a collaboration between the UK-Met Hadley Centre Regional and various programs from the Brazilian government funded by GEF. In CREAS, the HadAM3P global model is used together with the HadRM3P regional model to downscale climate variability and change in South America at the resolution of 50 km. In this poster, we analyze simulations of climate variability for South America during the present ( ), at the annual and seasonal levels. CONTROL CLIMATE SIMULATED BY THE RCM REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TIME VARIABILITY EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Factors to consider - Simulation length - Ensembles - Spin up - Choice of domain - Resolution - Output data - Surface configuration - 31 years (Jan/1960 to Dec/1990) - Three members - 1 year spin-up - South America - approximately 50Kmx50Km - standard diagnostics: daily - standard Setup Research Components Model validation: - Assessing the consistency between the RCM and GCM - Assessing how well the RCM represents the present day climate Climate change scenario construction: - To generate high resolution climate change scenarios for use in climate impacts and adaptation studies. SKILL OF THE MODEL SIMULATION Anomaly correlation, considering the ensemble mean. Precipitation (top) and Temperature (below) Brier Skill Score of the RCM for various rainfall indices in several regions. How HadRM3P add value to the AGCM? How far does the RCM diverge from its driving AGCM (HadAM3P)? Table - Bias, standard deviation (STD), root mean square error (rmse) and correlation coefficient (  ) of annual cycle. Sam = Amazonia (southern) Nam = Amazonia (northern) NNEB = Northeast Brazil (northern)SNEB = Northeast Brazil (southern) SBr-U = Southern Brazil-UruguayNWP-E = Northwest Peru-Equador SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In general the HadRM3P is capalbe of simulating the mean climatological features over South America; The HadRM3P resolves features on finer scales than the GCM. This is particularly clear for precipitation. The model is found to represent quite accurately the primary features of observed circulation, temperature and precipitation patterns, including their seasonal cycle and the main modes of interannual variability. But, there are significant biases. The model must be adequalety tuned in order to give reliabe for climate change, but there are a number of uncertainties and caveats associated with the RCM´s predictions of climate change over South America. Acknowledgements This poster is part of the a Master Degree Thesis of the first autor. We thank WMO and CPTEC for partially grants this conference. Thanks also to the UK- Met Office`s staffs for the valuable assistance. CREAS is funded by the UK FCO-GOF Program and the PROBIO-MMA-GEF project (Brazil) Simulated precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation at 850 and 200 hPa for DFJ 1983 and HadAM3P (first column), HadRM3P (center), Observed (third column). NAm SAm SNEB NNEB NWP-E SBr-U Regions of the SA Annual cycle of observed (CRU) and modeled rainfall and temperature in several regions of SA. Tick orange line shows observations. Thick black line represents the mean from the model ensemble. Others colors represent each member of the ensemble. Temperature (ºC) Precipitation (mm/day) Temperature Precipitation Hit rates versus false-alarm rates for seasonal area-averaged rainfall at the peak season for selected regions. Results are shown for the simulation of rainfall above (gray) and below (black). The area beneath the ROC curves is indicated also for above and below precipitation Above area Below area Above area Below area Above area Below area Above area Below area Above area Below area Above area Below area HadRM3P OBSERVATION Precipitation (mm/dia) HadAM3P wind field at 850hPa HadAM3PHadRM3P OBSERVATION Precipitation (mm/dia) Temperature (ºC) wind field at 850hPawind field at 200hPa Interannual variability of observed and modeled normalized rainfall departures during the peak of the rainy season. Tick black line represents the mean rainfall from the model ensemble. Thin blue lines represent each member of the ensemble. Tick red line shows the observed rainfall