21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-1 Simulation et prevision du temps Dominique Marbouty Head, Operations Department European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-2 Agenda The current situation –What is ECMWF?: activity, requirements –Past evolution of ECMWF’s computer means –Comparison with other NWP centres Future evolution –Requirements –Schedule –The main issues

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-3 Member States BelgiumThe Netherlands DenmarkNorway Federal Republic of GermanyAustria SpainPortugal FranceSwitzerland GreeceFinland IrelandSweden ItalyTurkey YugoslaviaUnited Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with: CroatiaIcelandWMOACMAD HungarySloveniaEUMETSAT

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Background 1967 European Council of Ministers propose co-operation in science and technology 1969 Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1971 Report on ‘EMCC’ : Net benefit of £100m per annum at 1971 prices Establishment 1975 ECMWF convention in force 1978 Headquarters building completed Start of operational activities 1978 Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1979 Start of operations (N48 grid point model) 1983 T63 / L16 spectral model 1983 CRAY X-MP/22, IBM data storage system 1985 T106/L19 spectral model 1985 CRAY X-MP, DEC telecommunications system (VAX) 1990 CRAY Y-MP8/ T213 / L31 spectral model 1992 CRAY C90 - ocean wave forecasting 1993 Ensemble prediction system 1996 Fujitsu VPP300-C and VPP Fujitsu VPP Enhanced Fujitsu VPP system

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-5 ECMWF in a few figures Participants:20 States Age:25 years Staffing:200 persons Budget:25m £ Model resolution:60 km EPS:50 elements

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-6 ECMWF’s principal objectives development of numerical models for weather forecasting daily distribution of forecasts to its Member States development of seasonal forecasting collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data allowing research staff to access these archives from remote sites providing computer resources to Member States

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-7

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-8

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-9 IFS/ARPEGE NWP package developed jointly by ECMWF and Météo-France includes forecast model, 4D-Var assimilation system, ensemble prediction system Medium range forecast: T L 319 L60 (60 km) 4D-Var: T L 319/T63 (60/300km) EPS: T L 159 L40 (120km) 51 members SF: atm T L 95 (200km) ocean 2 o x2 o x20

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-10 FUJITSU VPP700 (116 PEs) FUJITSU VPP700E (48 PEs) FUJITSU VPP300 (9 PEs) FUJITSU VPP300 (4 PEs) SGI Origin 2000 SGI Challenge VAX HP 9000 Router DEC Firewall E T H E R N E T IBM SP FDDI IBM RS/6000 HIPPI PCs SGIs TCP/IPDECNET MEMBER STATES WWW JANET/ INTERNET

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-11 ECMWF Supercomputer Growth

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-12 The current ECMWF’s computers Fujitsu VPP 700/116 peak 255 Gflops sustained 80 Gflops Fujitsu VPP 700E/48peak 115 Gflops sustained 35 Gflops Fujitsu VPP 5000/38peak 365 Gflops sustained 110 Gflops _________ 735 ~225 From next August Fujitsu VPP 5000/100peak 960 Gflops sustained 288 Gflops _________ 1330 ~400

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-13 Other NWP Centres UKMOSGI T3E900 /876 pk 788 Gfst ~79 Gf SGI T3E1200/636 pk 763 Gf st ~76 Gf _________ ______ 1550 Gf ~155? Gf DWDSGI T3E1200/812 pk 974 Gfst ~97? Gf Météo-France Fujitsu VPP5000/31 pk 298 Gf st ~90? Gf NCEPIBM SP/768 pk 614 Gf st ~45?Gf

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-14 The targets set for period 1999 to 2008 an extension of the skill of the deterministic forecast, as measured by the NH 500 hPa height field reaching 60%, by one day; a gain of one day at D+6 in the Brier skill-score for EPS-based probabilistic forecasts of moderate 850 hPa temperature anomalies (4K or larger) over Europe; preparation by 2003 of an assessment of seasonal forecast skill over the last 40 years; improving timeliness and reliability of product dissemination; provision of good forecasts of severe weather towards day 4 or day 5 - this requires the development of a suitable performance evaluation relating to severe weather.

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-15 Approach the development of an increasingly accurate earth-system model, using efficient and economical numerical methods together with a comprehensive and exhaustively-validated physical parameterisation package; the development of improved data assimilation systems employing the most advanced mathematical methods to extract information from in- situ data and from operational and research satellites; the development of improved EPS techniques for medium-range, extended-range and seasonal forecasting.

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-16 Development of the operational system-2000 to 2001 a 60-level T L 511 (40km horizontal resolution) 4D-Var data assimilation system, with analysis increments corresponding to the inner loop resolution of T L 255 (80km); a Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (RRKF) to provide estimates of flow- dependent background and analysis errors; a 60-level T L 511 (40km horizontal resolution) deterministic model; a 60-level T L 255 (80km horizontal resolution),100 elements, EPS model; a 60-level T L 95 (120km horizontal resolution) atmospheric/ocean model for seasonal prediction.

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-17 Next developments By the effective utilisation of METEOSAT Second Generation geostationary satellite data will require a move towards a resolution of 40 km for the global analysis/forecast system employing 90 levels By full use of a 30 km 90 level system to enable effective use of data from Europe’s polar orbiting METOP satellite By doubling of the horizontal resolution to 20 km and increased vertical resolution will improve the exploitation of data from the high resolution satellite-borne sounders such as IASI and AIRS and other high resolution data over land

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-18

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-19 Draft schedule for the next computer December 2000: specifications decided by ECMWF’s Council 2001: run Invitation To Tender (ITT) December 2001: decision 2002: installation, parallel run, move operations to new machine

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-20 The preparation of the ITT Facilitate competition: RAPS –RAPS6 to be issued this May (includes 4D-Var) Vector / Scalar : open choice –code adaptation is being prepared

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-21 Growth in the ECMWF archives Petabytes Storage growth in petabytes

21/03/2000 9th ORAP Forum ECMWF/DM-22 Conclusions Exploitation of the current Earth System Modelling capabilities and of the full information content of new satellite data will require substantial computer resources - the benefit will vastly improved forecast from a few days to a few seasons ahead The HPC could be acquired provided budgets are maintained in real- terms. Managing petabyte archives will be a major challenge.