Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast. Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at.

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Presentation transcript:

Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast

Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at Milner in 2007 were strongly below average (~55% of normal for April-Sept) and were towards the bottom of the ensemble. A moderate to strong cool ENSO event is expected for the winter of , which historically is associated with increased likelihood of above average Apr-Sep flow at Milner. Dry initial soil conditions in the basin are projected to systematically reduce natural flows at Milner from April-Sept for water year However even with dry soils, the forecast at Milner shows increased chance of high flows. Snakesim model simulations suggest increases in carry over storage in the upper Snake in Sept 2008 above about 1.0 MAF.

Validation Plot for the ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast

Natural Flows at Milner

Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP all years) Milner

Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP cool ENSO) Milner

Upper Snake Storage (KAF) Full SnakeSim Storage Forecast (cool ENSO composite) Obs. Oct 10, 2008

Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO WYStd Ann. Stats: 5 of 7 above of 7 above 1.7

enso_2008enso_trans_2008 Based on Milner ESP Natural Flow (KAF)