Enough Water for Enough food? Trends and Prospects in Water Management for Agriculture David Molden IWMI

Threshold for national food security Developed countries World Asia One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories

Will there be enough water? More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double Something has to change

Water Scarcity and Climate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier

Investing in Irrigation Irrigation Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation July 2008 Jan 2009 Living Planet index Freshwater Irrigation in SSA

Growth in Yields United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change.

Key Trends in SSA Rapid Water Development Hydropower/energy Rapid urban growth The role of China “Land and Water Grabs” Private sector – contract farming, markets Transboundary water concerns Growth of informal water economies

Informal Water Economies

Opportunities Water Management

Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands 1.Improve water productivity (more food/water) – Irrigation systems – Rainfed systems 2.Expand irrigated & rainfed agriculture 3.Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions 4.Manage demand, consume and waste less

Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies

Irrigation potential developed: Egypt, Morocco, Somalia, South Africa > 75% Botswana, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi, Uganda 50-75% Rest < 50% % Irrigated Land INDIA: ~50 SSA: 5

Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed Landscapes Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains. Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture with a range of water management options – pumps, water harvesting, soil moisture, supplemental irrigation, irrigation.

Making it happen Seek opportunities: – AWM falls between institutional cracks – Failure to focus on women Focus on agriculture, water access, drinking water & hydropower Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity

Thank you