1 Interactions between ICT and Transportation Systems: The Case Study of Telework Professor Arpad Horvath Dr. Erasmia Kitou Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Consortium on Green Design and Manufacturing (CGDM) University of California, Berkeley

2 Telework Definition Working partially or entirely at home or at a specifically assigned center instead of working at a company office. Telework is a more general term that encompasses the use of telecommunications and information technology for work purposes, typically away from a company office, and includes at-home workers who may never have a commute.

3 Teleworkers Around the World Europe: 1.2 to 4.6 million Japan ~1 million United States 1990: 4 million 1997: 11.1 million 2003: 19.6 million (20% of workforce) Reliable estimates are unavailable

4 Telework and the Government The United States Congress and governmental agencies have been increasingly promoting and encouraging telework. Currently: ~4.2% of 75,000 Federal employees in 63 agencies are teleworking.

5 Non-Telework and Telework Implications Non-telework impacts: EI NTW = EI TR + EI WREE +EI WRHS +EI WOS Telework impacts: EI TW = EI T + EI EE + EI HS +EI OS (Note: TR/T=transportation, WREE/EE=electronic and electrical equipment, WRHS/HS=house space, WOS/OS=office space) +++

6 Unit of Reference The unit of reference is a 7-day week acknowledging that some may go to the office on more than just 5 days during the week. telework could potentially induce non-commute travel and additional energy use any given weekday.

7 MS Excel-based Telework Tool

8 E-Commutair (Web-based tool) Transportation Module

9 E-Commutair Results Page

10 Case Studies Deterministic assessment (“typical” telework cases) Probabilistic assessment (Monte Carlo simulation)

11 Purpose of Deterministic Study Assess the role of geographical location in the telework model Present telework impacts as a function of transportation mode Use national survey data to get first estimate of telework effects

12 Effect of Geographical Location on Telework Impacts

13 Grams of CO 2 Emissions/7-day Week/Passenger from Transportation (Operation) (Assumed distance: 100 miles)

14 Grams of NOx Emissions/7-day Week from Transportation (Operation) (Assumed distance: 100 miles)

15 Deterministic Scenario Conclusions The net impacts (EI TW - EI NTW ) of telework programs differ by pollutant, state, and heating/cooling season. Reduction or elimination of commute-related travel may not always result in an overall environmentally preferable telework program Telework impacts vary based on the regional climate and the corresponding heating/cooling loads (home heating worse!) Choice of transportation mode can significantly affect the final results and can be crucial to the successful implementation of telework programs.

16 Steps of the Probabilistic Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal Ball Sensitivity Analysis

17 Probabilistic Analysis

18 Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Critical Parameters

19 Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Critical Parameters

20 Probabilistic Scenarios Conclusions Emissions associated with non-telework are higher, except for N 2 O and CH 4, but their absolute values are negligible compared to CO 2. Large standard deviations suggest that the choice and value of the variables may change the final ratio between telework and non-telework impacts. Total costs could be reduced when implementing a telework program. However, when examining the individual components of the model it appears that non-telework and telework related costs for lighting, heating and cooling are comparable. Rebound effects can significantly affect not just the transportation-, but also the company and home office-related effects. The success of a telework program depends on commuting patterns, induced energy usage, and characteristics of office and home space use. Home and company office energy related parameters although not significant when exploring CO, CO 2 and NO X they are important when examining the remaining pollutants.

21 E-Commutair