2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes north and south Todd Mitchell, Climate Impacts Group February 2010

0.56 °C in 2009 (tie with 2006 for 6th warmest, mean)

The decade was the warmest on record (0.54C) the warmest, followed by 1998 the decade is the warmest on record

Southern annular mode positive early in 2009

central - southeast Australia drought continues tropics not typical warm ENSO signal wet Mediterranean consistent with negative NAM, NAO

El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with respect to , 1.67, 1.83 °C in October, November and December, respectively 0.46°C 2009-mean, October-November-December mean 1.48°C 3 Atlantic hurricanes this year (fewer hurricanes during warm ENSOs)

Warm ENSO peaking now and will diminish through May-June- July

climatology 2009 mean -0.6 standard deviations NOAA coupled forecast model predicts positive PDO (warm west coast SST anomalies) through the Spring

Northern annular mode December 2009 largest negative value since at least January through December averages

Typical Northern Annular Mode temperature and preciptation anomalies

central - southeast Australia drought continues tropics not typical warm ENSO signal wet Mediterranean consistent with negative NAM, NAO

minimum in September September 2009 the 3rd lowest since 1979

Record warm Seattle July Cool and wet in central and eastern U.S. Modeling studies suggest this pattern was related to tropical SSTs

U.S. Wildland Fires

February-March- April temperature forecast: Enhanced probability of warmer than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest (classic ENSO pattern)

February-March- April preciptation forecast: increased probability of drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest (classic ENSO pattern)