OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

THE WAR ON TERROR U.S.-imposed rules of the game Ideological divisions: left, right, center Prevalence of democratic discourse Focus on “strategic options” Dubious alternatives: –Bolivarian dream of collective unity –Rule of international law, organizations

1. TURN TO THE NORTH Vicente Fox (Mexico) –Hopes for immigration reform –NAFTA constraints –Opposition throughout Latin America Comrades in the War on Terror –Colombia –Guatemala The FTA Club –Chile [special case] –Central America + DR –Peru –Colombia?

2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY Brazil (Lula) –Grandeza brasileira –Role in Haiti –Resistance to FTAA Venezuela (Chávez) –ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) –International assistance programs –Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries –Denunciations of Bush and USA –Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS? Cuba (Castros) –Armed rebellion no longer a path –Fatigue of revolutionary society –Institutionalization of charisma Venezuela (Chávez) –“Socialism for the 21 st Century” –Linkage to Cuba and Fidel Bolivia (Morales) –Indigenismo –Politics of ethnic reivindicación

4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY Brazil (Lula) –WTO –Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) –G4 (re UN Security Council), BRIC Venezuela (Chávez) –Non-Aligned Movement –UN Security Council –Petroleum exporters

5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE Europe –Divisions over Iraq –Concern about EU future –FTAs with Mexico, Chile –Distancing from/by Spain Asia –Withdrawal of Japan –Eruption of “China fever” –PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba

IS LATIN AMERICA BREAKING AWAY?

ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS Exports to China, 2008: –Argentina 9.0% –Brazil12.4% –Chile 4.8% –Mexico 0.7% –Cuba18.4% Liberation from IMF: –Argentina2005 ($9.8 bn) –Brazil2005 ($15.5 bn) –IMF “relegated to sidelines”

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies Emergence of “new Left” Resuscitation of Cuba Regional organizations w/o USA: –Rio Group (1986, 23 members) –Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members) –CELAC (2010, 33 members) –Other: Ibero-American Summits (1991), UNASUR (2005) –MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) –UNASUR (2005) –Mega-summits (2008, 33 members)

BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS Argentina: “a distant relationship” Brazil: “getting better all the time” Chile: “cooperative friendship” Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

POSSIBLE DISTINCTIONS Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean Political A: Right vs. Left Political B: Moderate vs. Radical U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?