Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?
?! EARTHSystem Analysis
Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?! […] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]
Modus Operandi
terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems marine ecosystems human dimensions atmosphere Do we know how good old earth is working now?
E S A To complex for a single mind, a single discipline, a single nation, a single interest. Thus… …inter-disciplinary …inter-nationational …inter-objective (balance of interests)
ESA ESM
Limits to Growth – WORLD3 World3 – complex but basically simple Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as… …human population …industrial capital …environmental pollution …natural resources
WORLD3 is not about absolute figures… …it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops
World3 assumes… … unlimited Growth of… …population …capital until the physical limit is reached
World3 Central question: What happens now?!
Population growth 1 time Earth‘s ecological capacity world population source: limits to growth – 30y update
Population growth 2 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time source: limits to growth – 30y update
Population growth 3 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time we are here source: limits to growth – 30y update
Population growth 4 Earth‘s ecological capacity world population time we are here source: limits to growth – 30y update
Safe landing ?! source: limits to growth – 30y update
Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!
source:
IGBP Objective To describe and understand Earth System dynamics focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes the changes that are occurring in these dynamics and the role of human activities in these changes
IGBP II Structure source:
Earth System Science Partnership Health START source:
Integrated Regional Studies assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa) be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis) contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration
Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 80 research groups scientists How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)? How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate? source:
Take home message Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures. ESA can be used as an early warning system ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available
For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:
Comments for Lars Schmidt from Manfred Stock 1.To be finished.....