Part 2: Planning Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making 決策的基礎

4–2 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Learning Objectives 1.Decision-making process 2.Rational decision-making model 3.Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty 4.Bounded-rational decision maker 5.Types of decision problems and decisions 6.Decision-making styles 7.Group Decision Making

4–3 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 決策的涵義 決策 （ Decision Making ） 的涵義 指個人或組織為解決某項問題以達成特定目標，就 兩個或兩個以上之方案做一選擇。 不論待人或處事，經常在做各種決策。  決策乃是人生的一部份  決策是影響組織成敗興衰的關鍵 決策可視為問題解決（ Problem Solving ）。

4–4 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 經常使用的決策方法 一、僅憑個人的直覺判斷而遽下決定 四、比較分析 三、與同學、同事、親友諮商或召開會議 二、求神拜佛禱告或籤卜卦

4–5 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Decision-making Decision-making process  A set of eight steps that includes identifying a problem, selecting a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution Problem  A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs Decision criteria 決策參考依據項目（決策準繩）  Factors that are relevant in a decision

4–6 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 The Decision-Making Process EXHIBIT 4.2

4–7 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Examples of Planning-Function Decisions 1.What are the organization’s long-term objectives? 2.What strategies will best achieve those objectives? 3.What should the organization’s short-term objectives be? 4.What is the most efficient means of completing tasks? 5.What might the competition be considering? 6.What budgets are needed to complete department tasks? 7.How difficult should individual goals be?

4–8 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Criteria 項目 and Weight 加權 in Car-Buying Decision (Scale of 1 to 10) EXHIBIT 4.3 CRITERIONWEIGHT Price10 Interior comfort8 Durability5 Repair record5 Performance3 Handling1

4–9 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Assessment of Car Alternatives EXHIBIT 4.4 INITIALINTERIORDURA-REPAIR ALTERNATIVESPRICECOMFORTBILITYRECORDPERFORMANCEHANDLINGTOTAL Jeep Cherokee Ford Mustang Mercedes C Pontiac Grand Am Mazda Tribute Dodge Durango Volvo S Isuzu Axiom BMW Audi A Toyota Camry Volkswagen Passat

4–10 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Weighting of Vehicles (Assessment Criteria X Criteria Weight) EXHIBIT 4.5

4–11 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 練習：決策參考項目 (Criteria) 與權重 (weight) 問題 : 1. 尋找我人生的最佳伴侶 2. 尋找最佳企業就職 3. 企業（如長大電算中心）尋找職場最佳新鮮人

4–12 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Decision-making (cont’d) Decision implementation 決策執行  Putting a decision into action; includes conveying the decision to the persons who will be affected by it and getting their commitment to it Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness 評估決策效 能  如何知道決策好壞？  和執行有何關係？

4–13 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Rational( 理性 ) decision that is objective and logical.

4–14 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Is information available for the decision? About the alternatives and outcomes  Certainty 確定  The implication that the outcome of every possible alternative is known  Uncertainty 不確定  A condition under which there is not full knowledge of the problem and reasonable probabilities for alternative outcomes cannot be determined.  Risk 風險  The probability that a particular outcome will result from a given decision

4–15 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Decision Tree （決策樹） and Expected Values （期 望值） for Renting a Large or Small Retail Space EXHIBIT QM–3

4–16 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Three Decision Models Rational  Describes choices that are consistent and value- maximizing within specified constraints 處理所有的 資訊以達成理性（幾乎不可能）。 Bounded rationality  Behavior that is rational within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem 簡化或有限的模型理性下來理 性地進行其行為 Satisfice  Making a “good enough” decision 滿意的決策而非最 佳的決策

4–17 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Three Elements of Creativity EXHIBIT 4.7 Source: T. M. Amabile, “Motivating Creativity in Organizations,” California Management Review (Fall 1997): 43. Creativity 創造力 The ability to produce novel and useful ideas

4–18 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Common Decision-making Errors Heuristics: Using judgmental shortcuts 捷思或經驗法則  Availability heuristic 可獲性捷思  the tendency for people to base their judgments on information that is readily available to them  Representative heuristic 代表性捷思  The tendency for people to base judgments of probability on things with which they are familiar Escalation of commitment 持續增加投注  An increased commitment to a previous decision despite negative information To dream the impossible dream, to fight the unbeatable foe, to bear with unbearable sorrow, to run where the brave dare not go. 做難圓之夢，擊不敗之敵，忍難忍之悲，赴險懼之途 知其不可而為之

4–19 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 決策的迷失 （四不一沒有） 一、不察覺問題的發生或存在 二、不知方向或目標 三、不加思考 四、不會分析 五、沒有執行

4–20 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 How Do Problems Differ? Well-structured problems 結構化  Straightforward, familiar, easily defined problems Ill-structured problems 非結構化  New problems in which information is ambiguous or incomplete Programmed decision 程序化決策  A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach Nonprogrammed decisions 非程序化決策  Decisions that must be custom-made to solve unique and nonrecurring problems

4–21 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Programmed Decision-Making Aids Policy 政策  A general guide that establishes parameters for making decisions about recurring problems Procedure 程序  A series of interrelated sequential steps that can be used to respond to a well-structured problem (policy implementation) Rule 法規  An explicit statement that tells managers what they ought or ought not to do (limits on procedural actions)

4–22 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization EXHIBIT 4.8

4–23 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Technology And Decision Making Expert systems 專家系統  Software that acts like an expert in analyzing and solving ill-structured problems  Use specialized knowledge about a particular problem area rather than general knowledge  Use qualitative reasoning rather than numerical calculations  Perform at a level of competence higher than that of nonexpert humans. Neural networks 類神經網路  Software that is designed to imitate the structure of brain cells and connections among them

4–24 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Decision-Making Styles

4–25 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Four Decision Making Styles  Directive style  low tolerance for ambiguity and rational way of thinking  logical and efficient, make fast decisions that focus on the short term.  Analytic style  high tolerance for ambiguity and rational way of thinking  need complete information before making a decision.  Conceptual style  look at many alternatives,  focus on the long run and often look for creative solutions.  Behavioral style  think intuitively but have a low tolerance for uncertainty;  open to suggestions, and concerned about the individuals who work for them.

4–26 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 理性的決策方法 理性的決策方法 ASSET Model Address the right decision problem Specify your real objective(s) Search for better alternatives Evaluate the alternatives Take a wise action 選對問題 確定目標 擬定可行方案 評估各項方案 抉擇與執行

4–27 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 A store owner had just turned off the lights in the store when a man appeared and demanded money. The owner opened a cash register. The contents of the cash register were scooped up, and the man sped away. A policeman was notified promptly. Please read the passage carefully:

4–28 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆, 勒索男子, 員警 2. 勒索者沒有把錢帶走 3. 店老闆燈關掉後, 一個男子走進來了 4. 勒索者打開了收銀機 5. 勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離 6. 勒索者向店老闆要錢款 7. 儘管收銀機中有錢, 但故事中沒有說有多少錢 8. 店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走 9. 打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆 10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款 11. 勒索的人是個男子 12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後, 一男子來到 以下 12 題的答案有三種 : 正確 (Y), 不正確 (N), 不能肯定 (?)

4–29 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 A store owner had just turned off the lights in the store when a man appeared and demanded money. The owner opened a cash register. The contents of the cash register were scooped up, and the man sped away. A policeman was notified promptly. 一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈, 有一男子 來到勒索錢款, 店老闆打開收銀機, 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來, 然後那 個男子逃走, 一員警很快接到報案 …… 閱讀測驗

4–30 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆, 勒索男子, 員警 -- Y 2. 勒索者沒有把錢帶走 -- ? 3. 店老闆燈關掉後, 一個男子走進來了 -- Y 4. 勒索者打開了收銀機 -- N 5. 勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離 -- ? 6. 勒索者向店老闆要錢款 -- Y 7. 儘管收銀機中有錢, 但故事中沒有說有多少錢 -- Y 8. 店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走 -- ? 9. 打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆 -- Y 10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款 -- ? 11. 勒索的人是個男子 -- Y 12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後, 一男子來到 -- Y 一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈, 有一男子來到勒索錢款, 店老闆打開收銀機, 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來, 然後那個男子逃走, 一員警很快接到報案 ……

4–31 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Group Decision Making Advantages  Make more accurate decisions  Provides more complete information 完整的資訊  Offers a greater diversity of experiences and perspectives  Generates more alternatives 更多可行方案  Increases acceptance of a solution 增加接受程度  Increases the legitimacy of a decision. 增加合法性 Disadvantages  Is more time-consuming and less efficient 費時  Minority domination can influence decision process 少數壟斷  Increased pressures to conform to the group’s mindset 服從的壓力 (groupthink)  Ambiguous responsibility for the outcomes of decisions 模糊的責任

4–32 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 When Are Groups Most Effective? Creativity  Groups tend to be more creative than individuals. Acceptance of the final solution  Groups help increase the acceptance of decisions. Effectiveness of group decision making  Groups of five to seven members are optimal for decision process speed and quality.

4–33 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 Improving Group Decision Making Brainstorming 腦力激盪  An idea-generating process that encourages alternatives while withholding criticism Nominal group technique 名目群體  A decision-making technique in which group members are physically present but operate independently Electronic meeting 電子會議  A type of nominal group technique in which participants are linked by computer

4–34 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2008 名目群體（ Norminal Group Technique NGT ） 1. 針對特定問題，與會者先寫下主張或構想； 2. 與會者逐一公開說明、討論（但不能互相批評） 3. 每位與會者對各項主張或構想分別加以排序、 評分（最好以不干擾他人之方式） 4. 統計得分最高之項目（可為多數）即為最後決 定。