Population Growth in ME & NA

Population Pyramids In many ME & NA countries, the population pyramid is truly pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than 19 years and less than 5% over 65.

Population Pyramids

Hidden Momentum of Population Family planning takes many years to achieve replacement fertility beyond a two-child family because today’s children are future parents; e.g., in Iran If family planning began in 1990 Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years) Fertility would eventually decline in 2150 (115 years)

Demographic Transition Stage 1: high birth rate; high death rate Stage 2: high birth rate; declining death rate due to improved heath and medicine Stage 3: falling birth rate due to economic development and family planning; low death rate Stage 4: low birth rate; low death rate

Demographic Transition

Majority of ME & NA countries are still in stage 2, experiencing population explosion with high birth rates, but falling death rates

The Demographic Transition

Reasons for High Fertility Rates Economic: children are viewed as capital goods to help with the family labor force Social: children will provide security for the aged parents Cultural: children are viewed as gifts from God; they add to the number of people following the religion (e.g., Islam, Judaism) Political: children will enable politicians and military leaders to gain power and win conflict

Female Fertility & Infant Mortality The more children are born, the more children die because of inadequate health care & nutrition The more children die, the more replacement children are born because of the need for kids

Policies to Lower Fertility Rate Invest in public health to reduce infant mortality and the demand for "replacement" children Improve female education and labor force participation Family planning: educate the poor about the population problem and provide contraception at minimal cost

Policies to Lower Fertility Rate Increase employment and income Improve income distribution: increase income share of the poorest 40% of the population

Resistance to Family Planning Lack of education and understanding of the population problem Ideology: overpopulation is a capitalist problem Religious belief: contraception and/or abortion are not permitted Military: a large and young population is desirable to win wars

Education & Human Capital On ‑ the ‑ job training Technical and vocational training Formal education at the elementary, secondary, and higher levels Adult education; extension programs in agriculture Migration: internal (rural ‑ urban and urban ‑ urban) and external (the brain drain)

Educational Expenditures Educational expenditures as a proportion of the GDP has nearly double in ME & NA between 1970 and 1990 (e.g., Jordan, Saudi Arabia

Enrollment Growth Enrollment ratios have substantially increased in many countries in all levels of education (primary, secondary, and tertiary) Still secondary and tertiary enrollment ratios are not high enough (e.g., less than 80% in secondary and less than 15% in tertiary)

Science Education The educational system is biased toward liberal arts at the expense of sciences. Enrollment ratios in sciences is less than 40% As a result many students go abroad to gain science education (e.g., engineering). Nearly 20% of high school and college graduates study abroad

Educational Problems Shortage of qualified teachers and administrators and textbooks Lack of emphasis on critical thinking and analytical skills development Cultural and political resistance to education because it creates new values and expectations Unfavorable attitude toward female education and participation

Educational Problems Creation of "educated" unemployment and underemployment due to limited labor absorptive capacity Expansion of urban open unemployment through rural ‑ urban and urban ‑ urban migration Increased income inequality since higher education is generally available to the already affluent people Inability to accommodate foreign educated professionals, contributing to the brain drain