About these slides: These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., April 1, They have been revised since the address to incorporate the U.N.’s latest population estimates. The notes roughly follow the script of the presidential address. The slides are available for public use under the following conditions: 1.The original source must be acknowledged. 2.They are only to be used for educational purposes. 3.The slides can be modified and separated as long as the content is not substantially altered and each slide retains the author and title information at the bottom of the slide. Note that the slides are not intended to stand alone, but are to accompany the written version of the paper: David Lam, “How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history,” Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, August Excellent research assistance in production of the paper and the slides was provided by Kendra Goostrey. David Lam Professor, Department of Economics Research Professor, Population Studies Center University of Michigan August 10, 2011

How the World Survived the Population Bomb David Lam University of Michigan Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History

World population is projected to reach 7 billion in We reached 6 billion in United Nations Population Division Estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Thomas Malthus David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1960 World population reached 3 billion Time Magazine January 1960 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1963 World population growth reached 2.2% per year. U.S. Census Bureau Estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1968 Paul Ehrlich publishes The Population Bomb David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How unusual was the demography of the 1960s? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

39 years World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

39 years 70 years World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years 39 years 70 years World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years 500 years 39 years 70 years World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years 500 years 1200 years 39 years 70 years World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years 500 years 1200 years 39 years 70 years What is the next number in this sequence? World Population Doubling times David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years g. Over 1000 years? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years g. Over 1000 years?h. Forever? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

U.N. projections of world population to 2100 High, Medium, and Low Variants UN Population Division Estimates revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Annual growth rate of world population Pre-1950 estimates % (Census Bureau) % Census Bureau estimates and projections % (UN) UN estimates and projections UN Population Division Estimates revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

The Demographic Transition David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Demographic Transition Southeast Asia per 1000 population David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Birth rate Death rate Rate of Natural Increase Demographic Transition Sub-Saharan Africa per 1000 population David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Demographic Transition World per 1000 population David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Three Big Concerns 1. Would we be able to feed everyone? 2. Would we run out of resources? 3. Would poverty increase? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“The world, especially the developing world, is rapidly running out of food…. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade or so.” - Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

World Food Production (1961=100) Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Source: Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“As the 1980’s begin, the growth in world production is losing momentum and its excess over population growth is narrowing.” Lester Brown, Science 1981 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

World Food Production (1961=100) Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production in India David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“My examination of the trend of India’s grain production over the last eighteen years leads me to the conclusion that the present production…is at a maximum level.” -Louis H. Bean, quoted in Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

India Food Production (1961=100) Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“Since 1983, India’s rising grain production has lost momentum….the country appears to be facing a catastrophic problem in the 1990s...” Paul Ehrlich & Anne Ehrlich The Population Explosion, 1990 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

India Food Production (1961=100) Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sub-Saharan Africa Food Production 1961=100 Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra and/or Neils Bohr David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Resource Depletion David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Julian Simon David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“If you are prepared to pay me now the current market price for $1,000 worth of any mineral you name, I will agree to pay you the market price of the same amount of that raw material on any future date you now specify.” Julian Simon, 1981 The Ultimate Resource David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich Total inflation- adjusted cost fell from $1000 in 1980 to $618 in 1990 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Real prices of metals (1980=100) Chromium Tungsten Copper Nickel Tin Source: USGS Simon-Ehrlich bet David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Energy Non-Energy Food Real commodity prices (1980=100) Source: World Bank David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Poverty David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Percent in Poverty Low and Middle Income Countries (in 2005 US dollars) < $2.00 per day < $1.25 per day World Bank estimates < $1.25 per day excluding China David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Number in Poverty (Billions) Low and Middle Income Countries < $2.00 per day < $1.25 per day < $1.25 per day (excluding China) World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia Latin America Percent in Poverty <$1.25 per day World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How did we survive? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Vietnam Food Production 1961=100 Population Total Food Production Per Capita Food Production liberalization Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Norman Borlaug, “Father of the Green Revolution” 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Winner David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Rice-World Wheat-World Productivity: Yield per hectare 1961=100 Food and Agriculture Organization Wheat-India Rice-India David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Exports as % of GDP Low and Middle Income Countries High income countries World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Urban and Rural Population World (billions) Total Urban Rural UN Population Division Estimates revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Total Fertility Rate World Decline of 82% relative to replacement fertility Decline of 47% from 1950 to 2010 UN Population Division Estimates revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Total Fertility Rate Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia Latin America UN Population Division Estimates revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Why did fertility fall so rapidly? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

TFR by Wanted TFR 74 DHS countries N=185 TFR=1.07(0.12)+0.98(0.033)  WTFR R 2 =.83 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Change in TFR by Change in Wanted TFR 43 DHS countries N=95  TFR=-0.028(0.006)+0.829(0.085)  WTFR R 2 =.466 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil Female Male Census data via IPUMS-International David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Why did schooling increase so rapidly? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS) University of Cape Town – University of Michigan Major support from NICHD David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Enrollment rate of Africans who have not completed secondary school Cape Area Panel Study 2005 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Larger Cohorts and Smaller Families David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

The Transition from Quantity to Quality David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Years of schooling of year-olds, Brazil Census data via IPUMS-International David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Years of schooling of year-olds, Brazil increase 3.34 increase David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011 Census data via IPUMS-International

Have we really survived? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Mean annual temperature (Fahrenheit) Global average, Source: NASA David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, U.S., (1900=100) Source: Smith et al 2011 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Source: World Bank Food Price Index (2000=100) David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

What will 2050 be like? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011