©2006 BAE Systems. COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008

2 COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP) –Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program –Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York… Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs –With organization and product line-specific calibrations Applied to –ROM estimates –Engineering bid & proposal –Trade studies SEEMaP Workbook: Encapsulating Tool and Process

3 Early Results Excellent Deployed in to E&IS OG –Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis –Mandated use by several organizations Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration Early experience shows excellent result: –Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25% –Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours –Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95% –(Bottom-up may take up to weeks)

4 Quantitative Risk Analysis COSYSMO provides single-point estimates –With fixed driver counts and classification Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation –Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence –A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions –Not just to claim them Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties Sizing Parameters

5 Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution Monte Carlo Simulation Input Distribution

6 In the Works Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP) –Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering –Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system –Deployment in 2009 Apply to company LCM Framework Prepare Bid/No Bid Information Prepare Proposal Contract Accepted Mobilize Initial Design Design System Integration of System System Qualification Production, Installation and Commissioning In-Field Support Disposal Phase Reviews 1B2A2B2C3A3B4567 Milestone Reviews TEEMaP SRR SDR/PDR CDR TRR PRR ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW Develop cost targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation TEEMaP Develop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs TEEMaP Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities

7 Gan Wang Questions and Comments