Steps Toward an AGI Roadmap

In the nanotech and virtual-worlds areas, the collaborative construction of explicit Roadmap documents has proved valuable for coordinating efforts and attracting funding.

Smaller groups have also produced less elaborate Roadmaps for their research disciplines, with worthwhile results

Comparably to these efforts in other areas, an AGI Roadmap would seem a worthy goal. This Panel Discussion aims to briefly touch some of the key questions that will need to be explored in order to create such a Roadmap.

What are the hardest scientific or technical problems facing the field? What approaches look most promising for solving these problems? Critical Questions Toward the Formulation of an AGI Roadmap

Specifically, what approaches look most promising for - Knowledge representation - Learning and reasoning - AGI System architecture - Language understanding/generation - Education of AGI systems Does any one of these areas look to you like a particular bottleneck, and if so why? Critical Questions Toward the Formulation of an AGI Roadmap

What other enabling, or simultaneously developing, technologies do you think are most likely to play a critical role in fostering the path to human-level AGI? These may be computer science or computer hardware technologies, narrow AI technologies, or something completely different (brain imaging … nanotech … more powerful coffee…) Critical Questions Toward the Formulation of an AGI Roadmap

What are your confidence intervals for the time of achievement of human-level AGI? How would they change in the hypothesis of Manhattan-Project-level funding and effort? What is a meaningful series of milestones for AGI development to proceed through in the next period?

Critical Questions Toward the Formulation of an AGI Roadmap Where do you see AGI technology going in the periods ? ? ?

Critical Questions Toward the Formulation of an AGI Roadmap Is the AGI field too fragmented for the notion of a unifying Roadmap to be feasible? If so, should we perhaps be thinking in terms of a small set of distinct Roadmaps, each corresponding to a major “cluster” of researchers with sufficently-similar approaches and aspirations?