Weather Discussion 5/17/2011. Forecast Competition.

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Presentation transcript:

Weather Discussion 5/17/2011

Forecast Competition

Amazing Snowpack

Squaw Valley

The Patterns

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The Danger: A Rapid Warmup

June 1948

Big Weekend Event

Big Rainfall Event over the NW Weekend Totals (West Side) – Puyallup: 2.00" – North Bend: 1.96" – Federal Way: 1.95” – Sea Tac 1.79 – Olympia: 1.74" – Eatonville: 1.65" – Auburn: 1.60" – Issaquah: 1.59" – Tacoma: 1.54" – Gig Harbor: 1.52" – Bainbridge Isl: 1.50" – Maple Valley: 1.48" – Bellevue: 1.42" – Renton: 1.36" – Kent: 1.34" – Covington: 1.33" – Bothell: 1.31" – Mercer Island: 1.25" – Everett: 1.15" – Redmond: 1.11" – Sequim: 1.09" – Shoreline: 0.98"

Lots of Daily Records Set on Saturday and Sunday RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 127 AM PDT SUN MAY A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.97 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.54 SET IN A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.67 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.34 SET IN A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.93 INCHES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.83 SET IN RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 623 PM PDT SUN MAY A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.81 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.56 SET IN 2001.

East Side RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 117 AM PDT SUN MAY THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.61 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.16 INCHES WAS SET IN RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE THE PRECIPITATION AT EPHRATA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.53 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.29 INCHES WAS SET IN RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 118 AM PDT MON MAY THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 0.84 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.08 INCHES WAS SET IN RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 138 AM PDT MNN MAY RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PENDLETON OREGON... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.72 INCH WAS SET AT PENDLETON OR YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.7 SET IN STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN PENDLETON OR 0.7 /

Big Rainfall Event Last Weekend: Excellent Forecasts and Great Predictability Dmodeldt: UWME Ensemble System initializationProb Probcast: Bayesian Model Averaging post-processing of UWME NAEFS:

Probcast: Sat Night: Prob of Precip

Quite a bit of lightning on the east side ops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+/4d/ ops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+/4d/

The Forecast r.quick.shtml r.quick.shtml