Spatial population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia and Finland Jonna Katajisto Metapopulation Research Group

Why? – MSc thesis for Scandinavian Brown Bear Project – To more methodological direction – Fragmentation and poaching main threats of bear populations – ”Bears threat to human populations”

Aims and means –Main processes and mechanisms determining population dynamics? –How affected by spatial and temporal patterns of landscape?  Spatially explicit population models

Specific issues –Viability of bear populations under current and future management plans –Effects of landscape structure on dispersal and population expansion –Effects of harvesting –Human conflicts

Outline –Linking landscape patterns to population dynamics –Brown bear data –Modelling challenges

Landscape - succession - human land use Landscape Dynamics Individual Demographic processes Spatial processes - movement - habitat choice - interactions Population density Distribution

–Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project since 1984 –To date ~300 bears –At the moment ~100 –Most followed their lifetime –Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute My bears

Habitat quality and human influence –CORINE land use data  Maps for habitat quality and human activity  Habitat specific demography  Hunter-kills  Harvesting with demographic variability

–Intensive/daily/ weekly/ monthly locations  Detailed individual movement –Dispersal from mother’s home range until establishment  Large scale approach Dispersal

Spatially explicit individual-based population model

Modelling challenges –Data quality: –Almost infinite possibilities for modelling detailed behaviour –Complex models difficult to test 1. Biological processes 2. Parameter values 3. Stochasticity

Excellent data Answers to some questions Improving spatial modelling Novel modelling

Population Viability Analysis - Spatially implicit time series stage-structured individual-based - Spatially explicit

Resource requirements Mechanism of mate choice Dispersal Social interactions Reproductiv e behaviour Mating syste m SSI Landscape structure Human activity Individual Behaviour Individual

–GIS methods –Habitat quality –Scale –Measures of spatial pattern Landscape

Spatially explicit individual-based population model