1 The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts Mark A. Berreth, Regional Economist, LMEA Sept. 28, 2011

2 Washington nonagricultural employment Seasonally adjusted U.S. nonagricultural employment (in thousands) ,000,000 2,925,000 2,850,000 2,775,000 2,700,000 2,625, , , , , , ,000 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics Job growth

3 Employment growth for WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

4 Employment growth by industry in WA Month-over-month change by industry Seasonally adjusted July 2011 to August 2011 Total nonfarm3,800 Manufacturing3,500 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing600 Education and health services2,000 Information1,800 Construction1,400 Retail trade400 Other services400 Professional and business services100 Mining and logging0 Transportation, warehousing and utilities-100 Government-400 Leisure and hospitality-1,300 Wholesale trade-1,600 Financial activities-2,400 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 Industry employment in WA Year-over-year change by industry Seasonally adjusted August 2010 to August 2011 Total nonfarm46,600 Professional and business services13,400 Manufacturing12,200 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing7,500 Education and health services7,500 Retail trade5,900 Leisure and hospitality4,700 Transportation, warehousing and utilities4,000 Wholesale trade2,800 Information2,100 Other services1,800 Construction900 Mining and logging100 Financial activities-2,200 Government-6,600 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA Total covered agriculture employment 12-month moving average, Washington state , ,000 96,000 92,000 88,000 84, , ,000 96,000 92,000 88,000 84,000 Agricultural employment in WA

7 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis Slow GDP growth U.S. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted, annual rate, $ in billions ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000

8 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis Private investment spending lags consumer spending

9 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, The Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence Aug = 44.5, seasonally adjusted, 1985= Consumer confidence

10 Unemployment rate Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 Top 10 states by lowest July 2011 unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted RankStateRate 1 North Dakota3.3% 2 Nebraska4.1% 3 South Dakota4.7% 4 New Hampshire5.2% 5 Oklahoma5.5% 6 Vermont5.7% 7 Wyoming5.8% 8 Iowa6.0% 9 Hawaii6.1% 9 Virginia6.1% Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

12 Bottom 10 states by July 2011 unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted RankStateRate 42 Georgia10.1% 42 North Carolina10.1% 44 Mississippi10.4% 45 Florida10.7% 46 District of Columbia10.8% 46 Rhode Island10.8% 48 Michigan10.9% 48 South Carolina10.9% 50 California12.0% 51 Nevada12.9% Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

13 Third decile of states by unemployment rate RankStateRate 31 Ohio9.0% 32 Connecticut9.1% 33 Washington9.3% 34 Arizona9.4% 34 Idaho9.4% 36 Illinois9.5% 36 Kentucky9.5% 36 New Jersey9.5% 36 Oregon9.5% 40 Tennessee9.8% Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics College gradsLess than bachelor's degree HS diploma, no collegeLess than HS diploma Unemployment rates by education level, in U.S. For ages 25 and up

15 Washington population educational attainment, 2009 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

16 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics All working-age men % 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% Youths: years All working-age women Youth unemployment rates in U.S. Men & women of all ages compared to youths aged years

17 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics % 15% 12.5% 10% 7.5% 5%5% 2.5% Alternative measures of labor underutilization Unemployed+marginally attached+part-time for economic reasons Unemployed + marginally attached Unemployed + discouraged workers Unemployment rate: Age 16+ (Seasonally adjusted)

18 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics Service-providing industry Goods-producing industry ,475,000 2,400,000 2,325,000 2,250,000 2,175, , , , , , , ,000 Jobs in goods-producing sectors in WA

19 Service-providing industry Goods-producing industry % 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Jobs in goods-producing sectors in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA As a percent of December 2007 employment 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Dec = 100%

20 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington: Construction Manufacturing U.S.: Construction Manufacturing % 120% 100% 80% 60% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% Employment over time As a percent of December 2007 employment Dec = 100%

21 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Zillow Zillow Housing Index Washington Arizona Nevada California % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% No recovery in home prices Dec = 100%

22 New hires for youths drop faster Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

23 Hiring takes place throughout the economy Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

24 Job creation and destruction in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

25 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. labor force participation rate Washington state labor force participation rate Seasonally adjusted, % Labor force participation rate remains near 25 year low

26 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. labor force participation rate: 55 years & over U.S. labor force participation rate: years U.S. labor force participation rate: years Older workers working longer, pushing up their labor force participation rate

27 U.S. employment-population ratio Seasonally adjusted, % WA employment-population ratio Washington’s employment to population ratio mirrors the nation Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment-population ratio: men Employment-population ratio: women Seasonally adjusted, % Employment to population ratios have yet to recover

29 Top ten occupational groups by projected annual openings, Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,

30 Other occupational group by projected annual openings, Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,

31 Questions?