Emissions reductions in perspective: How UK and global targets for CO2 measure up in historical and thermodynamic contexts Erica Thompson Grantham Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Emissions reductions in perspective: How UK and global targets for CO2 measure up in historical and thermodynamic contexts Erica Thompson Grantham Institute for Climate Change 29/01/2010

Anderson and Bows 2008 (Tyndall)

Anderson and Bows: conclusions

IEA WEO 2008

Evans and Mohr, Fuel, Volume 88, Issue 11, November 2009Fuel,Volume 88, Issue 11 (most optimistic scenario) FSU China Rest India USA Australia South Africa

2034 peak on mass basis 2026 peak on energy basis Net energy is important

But it can be done!

More optimistically...

“Conclusions” - for discussion (How) Can we reduce at required rate without economic crisis? (How) Can we reduce to required level without economic hardship? (How) Can the world’s people be made to accept rapid change? What other physical and thermodynamic limits are we close to? Why was energy not discussed in Copenhagen?