The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it.

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Presentation transcript:

The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it

Short Term Iraq: Out Afghanistan: In and eventually out

Middle East Turmoil Balancing US interests counterterrorism human rights and democracy OIL alliance with Israel

Policies Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue Bombing Libya Diplomacy with Syria: many implications Saudi Arabia: silence

Longer Term US Goals Preservation of US Leadership Democratization Global Free market capitalism Stable change where change is necessary

Trends and Transformations? 1.Unipolarity: Can it Last 2.New Cold War 3.Multipolarity 4.Leadership, not Dominance 5.Middle Power Challenges 6.Globalization: Interdependence 7.Decline of Nation-State Power 8.Uncertainties

1. Unipolarity Can it Last? It never has before

US Wealth See World Bank:

Global Military Expenditures Global Military Expenditures CountryMilitary spending Budget PeriodCountryMilitary spending Budget Period World $1100 billion 2004 est.World $1100 billion 2004 est. United States $623 billion FY08United States $623 billion FY08 Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est.Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est. China $65.0 billion 2004China $65.0 billion 2004China Russia$50.0 billionRussia$50.0 billionRussia France$45.0 billion 2005France$45.0 billion 2005 United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est.United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est. Japan$41.75 billion 2007Japan$41.75 billion 2007Japan Germany$35.1 billion 2003Germany$35.1 billion 2003 Italy$28.2 billion 2003Italy$28.2 billion 2003 South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est.South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est. India$19.0 billion 2005 est.India$19.0 billion 2005 est.India Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est.Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est. Australia$16.9 billion 2006Australia$16.9 billion 2006 North Korea $5.0 billion FY02North Korea $5.0 billion FY02 Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est.Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est. From:

2. New Cold War One nation catches up to the US Rising Challenger Declining hegemon

US vs. China President Obama and President Hu

Great Power Challenges Rival Power Soft Authoritarian Ideology

3. Multipolarity Many nations catch up to the US The US falls back to the pack

A Multipolar System US Russia Japan EU ChinaIndia

Or Another Bipolar System US IndiaRussia China

Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

Trips to Asia

4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20

5. Middle Power Challenges Iranian power

6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

7. Decline of Nation-State Power The Nation-State System evolves –Governments weaken Financial Flows that governments can’t control Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against

Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,

US GDP Growth

21 st Century Challenges Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al- Shabab in Somalia

AQAM Attacks

Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:

8. Uncertainties Climate Change Energy Food Population Over-urbanization Migration And…

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