A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy AFN Leadership Forum Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research 6 July 2006

Acknowledgments Funding: Alaska Council on Economic Education University of Alaska Foundation Previous work: Scott Goldsmith, ISER Helpful comments: Cynthia Casas, Steve Jackstadt

These slides available at:

Overview Size: – How big is the Alaska economy? Structure: –What drives the Alaska economy? –How is that changing? Regional variation: –How is remote Alaska different? Looking ahead: –Strengths and areas of concern

How big is the Alaska economy? (year 2004) population: 658,000 total employment: 400,000 –includes military, proprietors personal income: $22 billion gross state product: $36 billion –value of production occurring within the state –includes wages and profits going to nonresidents ISER, AK DOLWD, U.S. BEA

Alaska gross state product: $36 billion in 2004 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Alaska gross state product compared to other states U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Alaska gross state product: a closer look U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Alaska gross state product compared to other countries U.N. Human Development Report 2005

Structure of the Alaska economy subsistence the five driving sectors how we got here looking ahead

Subsistence is a vital part of the Alaska economy Total subsistence harvests exceed 53 million pounds ISER, ADF&G

Sources of jobs in the cash economy: about 400,000 total jobs in 2004 oil and gas 32% federal govt 35% fishing, mining, timber 10% tourism, cargo 10% personal assets 10%

Oil and gas: 126,800 jobs (32%) ISER

Federal spending: 141,600 jobs (35%) ISER

Seafood, mining, and timber: 50,400 jobs (13%) ISER

Tourism and air cargo: 39,800 jobs (10%) ISER

Personal assets (mailbox economy) 41,400 jobs (10%) ISER

Growth of Alaska employment [photos] ISER

Alaska economy looks more like the U.S. over time U.S. Census

Regional variation: how is remote Alaska different? jobsincomedemographicsinfrastructure

Unemployment Alaska DOLWD

Average annual wage & salary earnings in private industry (2000) Alaska DOLWD

Rural Alaska runs on expensive diesel barrels oil per person per year

Who will need jobs? Age distributions, year 2000 Anchorage remote rural AK U.S. census

Internet availability to communities (not the same as actual connections) Regulatory Commission of AK 2005

Looking ahead: strengths and areas of concern strengths and areas of concern

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500, Year Barrels per Day Concern: Oil production is declining… NPRA Other NS Northstar Colville R Badami Duck Island GPMcIntyre Milne Pt KRU.IPA+Sat PBU.IPA+Sat Cook Inlet Alaska Department of Natural Resources Prudhoe Bay Kuparuk Oil Production

We have been rescued – for now - by high oil prices State Oil Revenues Alaska Department of Revenue, author calculation

Strength: Permanent fund earnings roughly equal oil revenues

More than 40% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 50 people –average size = 6 people More than 50% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 100 people These data do not include proprietors: –most fishers, many professionals –Therefore, true size of the small-business sector is significantly larger Strength: Small firms are a vital part of today’s economy…. Alaska DOLWD, author calculation

Private sector employment by size of firm (year 2005) Alaska DOLWD Less than 50 employees more than 500

Strength: Alaska leads the nation in household internet usage % of households with internet access (2003) –Alaska 68.5 –New Hampshire 65.5 –Colorado 63.4 –Connecticut 62.9 –Utah 62.6 U.S. Census

Strength: Alaska has low inequality Gini coefficients for countries and regions ( 0 = complete equality 100 = complete inequality) Alaska estimated by author from US Census American Community Survey 2004 – household income UN Human Development Report 2005 Chap 2 – per capita income Alaska 38.0 (based on household income)

concern: formal ownership of Alaska lands Total 375 million acres

Strength and concern: Alaska age distribution includes many young people entering labor force U.S. (year 2000) Alaska (year 2000) U.S. Census

We’re all in this together.