Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model 101

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Role of Models Modeling ResearchMonitoring Management Power Clarity What is the Concentration? What are the filtering rates? Where are the streams? What is the environmental effect of any particular management scheme? How do we balance many different interests?

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling CBP Modeling Structure Watershed Model Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package Regional Acid Deposition Model

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Topics Description of the Watershed Model Calibration Data Use in Management

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Purposes of the Watershed Model 1. Accurately deliver loads to the Water Quality Model 2. Equitably account for all load sources 3. Assess changes due to management

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Requirements for WSM Daily flow, nutrient, and sediment load Accurately simulate any major land use Responsive to  Nutrient input to land  Structural BMPs  Changes in stream chemistry  Meteorology

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling HSPF Hourly time step Heavily parameterized  sensitive to many inputs  very flexible Open Source, Free Supported by USGS and EPA Wide usage

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling HSPF Lumped parameter Physically-based models

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling HSPF - lumped model

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Simulation --1 Acre Ground Water Surface Interflow Lower Zone

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Water simulation - physically based Ground Water Surface Interflow Lower Zone

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Precipitation or percolation Percolation Evapotranspiration RO (time series) f(soil properties, slope, temp) f(time series, land properties) f(soil properties, slope, temp) Water simulation - physically based

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Nutrient and Sediment Simulation MeteorologyPrecipitation Runoff and Groundwater Land Morphology Nitrogen Cycle Sediment Export Phosphorus Cycle Nutrient Inputs

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Nutrient and Sediment Simulation Nitrogen Cycle

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Trees Roots Leaves Particulate Refractory Organic N Particulate Labile Organic N Solution Ammonia Nitrate Solution Labile Organic N Adsorbed Ammonia Solution Refractory Organic N Nitrogen Cycle in Watershed Model Forest Atmospheric Deposition Denitrification Export

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Model Nutrient Balance Atmospheric Deposition Denitrification Volatilization Export to Streams

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Uses Modeled Forest

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Model Nutrient Balance Atmospheric Deposition, other sources Denitrification Volatilization Export to Streams Uptake by grasses

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Uses Modeled Pervious Urban, Impervious Urban

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Model Nutrient Balance Atmospheric deposition, Manure, Fertilizer Denitrification Volatilization Export to Streams Uptake by Crops

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Uses Modeled High Till, Low Till, Hay, Pasture

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land-Water Connection X 3000 acres X 400 acres X 900 acres X 100 acres X 200 acres X 300 acres

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling River Simulation River 3

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling N River Simulation Algae ORGN NO3 } Sediment NH3

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling River Simulation River 1 River 2 River 3

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Watershed Model 64,000 square miles Nine land uses 94 segments

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Topics Description of the Watershed Model Calibration Data Use in Management

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling 2 points of calibration Land Surface Rain River Reach

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Calibration Exports from land  Literature values  Analysis of input River input to tidal waters  Data at all major inputs  Upstream points

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

2 points of calibration Land Surface Rain River Reach

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

Calibration Reviews Modeling Subcommittee Tributary Strategy Work Group Model Evaluation Group ____________________________________________________________________________ CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models ____________________________________________________________________________ A Report of the Chesapeake Bay Program Nutrient Subcommittee Annapolis, MD August 1998 Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Topics Description of the Watershed Model Calibration Data Use in Management

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Types of Input Data Point sources Land use Nutrient loads to land Management Actions

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Point Sources Facility by facility list Monthly data where available Years Estimates for future scenarios

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Point Source Info Point Source Workgroup  representation from all states + DC Documented on the modeling subcommittee web site ____________________________________________________________________________ CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS Appendix F: Point Source Loadings ____________________________________________________________________________ A Report of the Chesapeake Bay Program Nutrient Subcommittee Annapolis, MD August 1998 Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Use } EMAP GIRAS Forest Impervious Urban Pervious Urban Farms Agricultural Census, CTIC } Crop Hay Pasture Mixed Open Sources Outputs } Population Estimations, Projections Land Use Data Base

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land Use Tributary Strategy Workgroup  representation from all states + DC Documented on the modeling subcommittee web site ____________________________________________________________________________ CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models ____________________________________________________________________________ A Report of the Chesapeake Bay Program Nutrient Subcommittee Annapolis, MD August 1998 Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Nutrient Loads to Land Atmospheric Deposition Fertilizer Manure

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Atmospheric Deposition Use national data source (NADP) Use Airshed model to determine wet deposition vs dry deposition Use Airshed model to estimate change due to management actions

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Atmospheric Deposition ____________________________________________________________________________ CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS Appendix D: - Precipitation & Meteorological Data Development & Atmospheric Deposition ____________________________________________________________________________ A Report of the Chesapeake Bay Program Nutrient Subcommittee Annapolis, MD August 1998 Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Manure Use Agriculture Census to get animal numbers by type Use assumptions about manure production and applications Get monthly applications by crop type Overseen by Tributary Strategy Work Group

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Manure Data Model Pasture Beef Uncollected Collected Spring/Fall Application Daily Application Crop Enclosure Barnyard Volatilization Daily Application Storage Volatilization Runoff Dairy Swine Layers Broilers Turkeys

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Fertilizer Data From State Agriculture Agencies Modified for nutrient management Overseen by Modeling Subcommittee and Tributary Strategy Workgroup

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Find Nutrient Management Mineral Crop Need AtDep Fertilizer Manure 30% Crop Need

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Find Nutrient Management Mineral Crop Need AtDep Fertilizer Manure 30% Crop Need

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Excess Manure Mineral Crop Need AtDep Fertilizer Manure 30% Crop Need

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Manure Mineral AtDep Crop Need 30% Crop Need Excess Manure

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Manure Mineral AtDep Crop Need 30% Crop Need Manure to move Excess Manure

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Manure and Fertilizer Trib Strategy Workgroup  representation from all states + DC Documented on the modeling subcommittee web site ____________________________________________________________________________ CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS Appendix C: Agricultural Nutrient Loads ____________________________________________________________________________ A Report of the Chesapeake Bay Program Nutrient Subcommittee Annapolis, MD August 1998 Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Topics Description of the Watershed Model Calibration Data Use in Management

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Scenario Method Run hydrology with land use, land management, and point sources held constant What are the expected annual loads if the state of management is Trib Strat?

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling DRAFT

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling CBP Modeling Structure Watershed Model Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package Hydrodynamic Model Regional Acid Deposition Model

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling ` Average Water Clarity with watershed management at 1985 levels DRAFT

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Average Water Clarity with watershed management at Limit of Current Technology DRAFT

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Phase 5

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Collaborators CBP  EPA  CRC  UMCES  NRCS  all state agencies USGS  MD and VA U of MD. MDE ICPRB DCR

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Major Partners MDE/DCRTSWGMod SCICPRB USGS CBP Mod & Nut Teams Stakeholder and Technical Input TMDL needs Potomac Stake- holder coordination CB stake- holder and technical information Technical guidance

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling The right size for segmentation

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling HSPF - lumped model What is a reasonable size for lumping? Too big  meaningful differences are missed Too small  can’t get the data  can’t run the model

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Phase 5 land segmentation Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases Near the limit of computing capacity

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling What is a reasonable size for lumping? Too big  meaningful differences are missed Too small  can’t get the data  can’t run the model River Simulation

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Phase 5 River Segmentation Greater than 100 cfs or Has a flow gage Near the limit of meaningful data Consistent criterion

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Putting the land and river together

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

Land-Water Connection X 3000 acres X 400 acres X 900 acres

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Land-Water Connection X 3000 acres X 400 acres X 900 acres

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling MET Data ATDEP Data Land NPS Export E T M Final Output Nutrient Application Database PS Data

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling E T M

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling External Transfer Module Management Practices Time Series Land Use Time Series from Land Simulation Time Series to River Simulation E T M

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling P5.D1 - Time varying calculation Management Practices Land Use Time Series 1985 reference 1990 calibration 2000 progress 1985 reference 1992 start of BMP implementation 2000 progress E T M

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling E T M

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling E T M

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Other ETM Opportunities Seasonality Urban flow considerations Performance under extreme weather Design life consideration Ability to add any new BMP Subgrid effects

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Other p5 changes

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Easier Operation Ability to split out small watersheds for simulation Ability to run partial scenarios User-Friendly GUI for model output

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

Groundwater No groundwater lag in phase4.x Some ideas on the table for phase5, but...

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Simulation Time P4 – (used ) P5 – 1984 – 2000 (calibration) 2001 – 2001 (verification)

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Rainfall Better information on a 5 km grid Use regression of weather pattern, latitude, longitude, and altitude.

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Atmospheric Deposition Update of data and regression methods for observed data Update of model predicting change due to management actions

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

Better and extended data sets Point Source Water Diversions Septic

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Better and extended data sets Fertilizer Manure Land Use =>

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling RESAC 2000 Land Cover Delivered for Patuxent Available by county- segment integrated with impervious map

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling RESAC 2000 Impervious Map Data on 30 m pixels Able to combine with LU Map

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling More land use types Phase4  Forest  Urban  Hitil  Lotil  Hay  Pasture  Manure Phase5  Low intensity developed  Moderate intensity developed  High intensity develop  corn  wheat  hay  soy  vegetables  nursery  tobacco  cotton  Pasture  Grass  fallow  Deciduous forest  Evergreen forest  Mixed forest  Deciduous wetlands  Evergreen wetlands  Emergent wetlands  Bare rock/ mines/quarries  Other barren (sand and soil)  Water  Major roads/interstates

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling New River Data Needed geomorphology of ~800 rivers  Had data for ~200  Developed regression curves for each region for Bankfull depth Bankfull width Bottom depth

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling New Reservoir Data Phase4  Six simulated reservoirs Phase5  Forty simulated reservoirs

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling More Observations Phase4  16 stations for flow and water quality Phase5  70 water quality stations  280 flow stations

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Calibration Better input data More realistic simulation More observations Better calibration software More calibrators 5 more years of understanding