A Roadmap for Improving Aviation Weather in the 21 st Century National Business Aviation Association, Inc. Orlando, Florida October 7, 2003 Sponsored by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) Facilitator Mary M. Cairns

Overview Background National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment - The Report Panel Presentations Discussion Summary

Weather Impacts on the NAS Safety –Weather is a major contributing factor to aviation accidents about 25% of all aviation accidents about 33% of all fatal commercial carrier accidents about 25% of all fatal general aviation accidents Efficiency –Good weather facilitates the NAS –Marginal weather debilitates the NAS –Poor weather strangulates the NAS

OFCM Mission To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research among the federal agencies

Coordinating Infrastructure Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Program Councils National Space Weather Program National Aviation Weather Program Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs Operational Processing Centers Environmental Information Systems and Communications Integrated Observing Systems Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services Cooperative Research Working Group for Environmental Support to Homeland Security Standing Committees

Historical Background 1995 National Research Council Report Aviation Weather Services - A Call for Federal Leadership and Action –FAA identified as lead agency 1997 Report of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security called for an 80% reduction in the rate of fatal aviation accidents by the year 2007 Reiterated in FAA Flight Plan

OFCM’s Actions 1997 National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan 1999 National Aviation Weather Initiatives (and subsequent updates) 2000 Aviation Weather User Forum –Product development –Product dissemination –Cockpit displays –Training –Decision support systems/capabilities 2001 National Aviation Weather Initiatives Final Baseline Tier 3/4 Report (and subsequent updates, e.g., 2003) 2002 Aviation Weather Training Report 2003 National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment

National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment – The Report Accident Reduction Trends Confirm Value of Coordinated R&D Programs

Report Findings Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation Reducing accident trends for smaller commercial carriers Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards Reducing risk from high density altitude Risk reduction for other weather factors Sustaining R&D to continue improving aviation safety

Panel Focus Where have we been, Where are we now, and Where are we going? What products have made a significant difference in the reduction of weather- related accidents to date? What current and future products and programs could make a significant improvement in safety toward the 2007 goal and beyond?

Panel Moderator: Ms. Mary M. Cairns, OFCM, Senior Staff Panelists: –Mr. David Whatley, FAA, Director, Aerospace Weather Policy and Standards Staff –Mr. Tom Fahey, Northwest Airlines, Manager, Meteorology –Mr. Mark Andrews, NWS, Chief, Aviation Service Branch –Col. Neil Wyse, USAF, Deputy for Federal Programs, Directorate of Weather

Current Icing Potential (CIP) Agencies: FAA, NWS Description: Improved icing product User Need: –National Aviation Weather Initiatives –GA Weather JSIT –FAA In-flight Aircraft Icing Plan Benefits: Reduced accidents/fatalities Lessons Learned: Need for user involvement

Future Program: CIP Severity Agencies: FAA, NWS in AWTT process Expected Benefit: Improvement of usefulness of the product Expected Challenges: Obtaining enough PIREPs for verification, especially SLD

Northwest Airlines (NWA) Turbulence Plot (TP) System What: An air carrier, integrated process addressing wx obstacles during preflight planning & en route operations How: Data ingest and production, distribution, display & application of tailored weather information Who:DispatchersMeteorologists Flight AttendantsPilots Why/User Need: Developed to address FAA’s Federal Air Regulations & internal NWA business model Benefits: Reduced en route wx hazard encounters affecting Flight AttendantsPassengersAircraft Training: Initial & recurrent training for all active participants Challenges: Quantifying value of safety & efficiency

Existing NWA Program: CDM (Collaborative Decision Making) What: NAS Users & Mgr’s effort to improve NAS efficiency How: NAS data shared between Gov’t & Industry via common displays to facilitate agreement on NAS management Who: Gov’t & Industry NAS users & Mgr’s and Research Community Why/User Need: Increase predictability & Capacity of the NAS Benefits/Goal: Reduced air traffic delays, diversions & cancellations

New NWA Effort: CDM – Wx Applications Concept: Integrate Wx Info Management & Air Traffic Management processes to –Provide Improved Aviation Weather Information –Enhance Ability of Decision Makers to Use the Information Challenges to Implement: Resources

NOAA’s Aviation Weather Program Partnering towards improved aviation services Past and current achievements Improved processesImproved processes –Aviation Weather Technology Transfer process –Canadian participation in Collaborative Convective Forecast Product –Multi-governmental agency and international participation in development of new aviation training courses –Better integration of FAA/NASA research into NOAA operational products Improved aviation forecast toolsImproved aviation forecast tools Aviation forecast preparation system released July 2003Aviation forecast preparation system released July 2003 Increased use of time proven forecast techniquesIncreased use of time proven forecast techniques Improved verification systemsImproved verification systems

NOAA’s Aviation Weather Program Partnering towards improved aviation services Future work Complete development and use of “Cradle to Grave” aviation product processComplete development and use of “Cradle to Grave” aviation product process –Multi-agency Joint Planning Office effort –Better advance warning of new and improved forecast products to dissemination system builders –Incorporate end-user feedback directly into the design of new products from the very start (example: Graphical Area Forecast) Enhanced DoD and NOAA partnershipsEnhanced DoD and NOAA partnerships –Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts –4-dimensional aviation database Increased level of automationIncreased level of automation –Take advantage of FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program results to provide gridded aviation parameter forecasts Increased emphasis on graphical productsIncreased emphasis on graphical products

DOD – Past and Present Who: USN Program: NWP - NOGAPS What: Robust atmospheric data assimilation and forecast model –Increased resolution; better representation of jet stream level winds –Upgraded data assimilation system User need: Improved support for aviation forecasts Benefit: Overall improvement in global modeling for aviation forecasts. Training: Operational training courses Who: USAF Program: Cloud Depiction and Forecast System (CDFS) II What: Fine-scale 3-D depiction of cloud height, amt, and type derived from geostationary and polar orbiting weather satellite sensor data. Produces forecasts to 12h. User need: Improved cloud cover information, on a global scale. Benefit: More accurate cloud depiction and forecasts for mission completion. Also benefits other agencies (e.g., USN). Training: Operational training courses

DoD – Future Who: DoD, NOAA, NASA Multi-agency Partnerships What: Environmental Satellite Program –GOES-R (NASA/NOAA) –NPP [NPOESS PREP PROGRAM] (NASA) –NPOESS (DoD/NOAA/NASA) -- RESEARCH AND CLIMO PATHFINDERS -- EOS --- Terra and Aqua (NASA) Benefits: Improved observations for atmospheric soundings, data assimilation, volcanic ash (aerosols) –Increased resolution—Improved model initiation –Improved timeliness Who: DoD/Air Force What: BENVINT (Battlespace ENVironmental INTellegence) –Test Program for UAV Weather Sensor Benefits: Weather obs from Data Denied and Data Sparse Regions –Front line data/obs/reduced risk –Inproved weather intel to decision makers –Application to large data void areas—Oceans/Ranges

Open Discussion

Summary NAWP Assessment Report should help guide development and plans to continue to improve safety and efficiency in the NAS FAA should continue to lead the effort towards the Strategic Plan goal in 2007 and beyond Aviation community should continue to work closely together Much work still needs to be done…FAA, other federal agencies, industry, university, and private organizations work on identifying and specifying the gaps

Further Information Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology 8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500 Silver Spring, Maryland (301) Website: