The Earth is not Infinite and therefore does not scale Our Waveform of Consumption

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale  Global Inequity

A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000) Industrial Output: 40 Marine Fish Catch: 35 CO 2 Emissions: 17 Total Energy Use: 16 Coal Production: 7 World Population: 4 No More Fish by 2100 at this rate of Consumption

Waveforms of Growth

Implications This Century can not scale in terms of material consumption the way that the last century did  BAU can’t be supported We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies

Business As Usual Scenario

The Chinese Sledgehammer Production and Consumption on an unprecedented scale Over the period China is on pace to use more earth material resources than the United States did in the entire period of 1900 – 2005 !

The Rate of Steel Consumption is the Scariest – this is a robust tracer of total material use

Note the 2000 Divergence

Best perspective on Steel Use This means that we are running out of material (globally) for basic infrastructure

Demand and Supply The Wal Mart Express

The Global Footprint of Consumption The Second Industrial Revolution

USA vs India and China Energy ProductionUSChinaIndia % growth6%107%70% GNP GNP % growth88%1363%1042% Energy Intensity Energy Intensity =0.64 % growth52%750%