, Division of Research 2010 Outlook for the South Carolina Economy Recovery or Relapse? Doug Woodward Division of Research.

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Presentation transcript:

, Division of Research 2010 Outlook for the South Carolina Economy Recovery or Relapse? Doug Woodward Division of Research

2010 U.S. Outlook 2009 was year of government activism. Massive fiscal stimulus. Low interest rates. Direct monetary intervention in credit (mortgage) markets. There will be a recovery. But slow growth for private sector activity in Relapse?

South Carolina’s Economic Prospects in 2010 Boeing is big. Leading economic indicators look good.

Uncertainty Dysfunctional financial system Leverage and debt More surprises? From excessive credit to no credit Despite bailouts Choking private expansion

A Lasting Recovery … No Relapse No more financial shocks Virtuous cycle of U.S. GDP growth Spending Investment Jobs

Dr. Doom: No Lasting Recovery Predicted recession Possibility of a W-Shape rather than V- or U-shaped. Unemployment rates in the mid- double digits 15% or above unemployment rate, with and multi-year stagnation in economic activity.

V-Shape?

Keys to a Sustained Recovery  Monetary and fiscal stimulus will fade  Consumer spending  Sales  Private investment  Risk taking

S.C. Real Retail Sales‏ 12-Month Moving Average

South Carolina Metro Areas (MSAs): Real Retail Sales 07/0808/09 (up to Oct)‏ 7.3%-14.3% Anderson 0.8%-14.9% Charleston-N Charleston -0.6%-11.9% Columbia 5.3%-11.6% Florence 2.6%-15.1% Greenville -6.0%-13.3% Myrtle Beach-Conway-N Myrtle Beach 5.6%-4.1% Spartanburg -3.4%-12.3% Sumter

Business Investment

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau.

S.C. Growth of Single Family Housing Permits

Monetary Stimulus Needed  Trillions from U.S. Treasury and Fed  Liquidity  Low, low rates  Extra monetary easing by Fed  Credit crunch continues  A solvency problem?

Fiscal Stimulus $800 billion, with half still unspent Shovel-ready projects Infrastructure Restoration of state cuts Short-term: Multiplier effect Long-term: Comb- over effect

Forecast for South Carolina’s Economy in 2010

Outlook for 2010: Personal Income

Outlook for 2010: Total Employment

Employment Growth by Sectors of Activity 2008/2009 Difference%Change 1,1001.1%Government -26, %Manufacturing -6, %Retail Trade 4,4002.0%Professional & Business Services -8, %Leisure & Hospitality Services -1, %Education and Health Services -16, %Construction -3, %Financial Activities

South Carolina Metros (MSAs): Total Nonfarm Employment Oct 08Oct 09%Change % Anderson % Charleston-N Charleston % Columbia % Florence % Greenville-Mauldin-Easley % Myrtle Beach-Conway-NMB % Spartanburg

South Carolina MSAs: Unemployment Rate Oct 08Oct 09Change Anderson Charleston-N Charleston Columbia Florence Greenville-Mauldin-Easley Myrtle Beach-Conway-N Myrtle Beach Spartanburg Sumter

Outlook for 2010: Unemployment Rate

Conclusion Fragile recovery. Distress in the financial system. Running out of tricks. Weak job market. Slow growth in income. Relapse possible.

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