Observational and Modeling Study of Urbanization vs. Global Warming Impacts on SoCAB and SFBA Climate Bereket Lebassi Habtezion Ph.D. Candidate Prof. Jorge.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Intense Spring Sea Breezes Along the New York - New Jersey Coast Stanley David Gedzelman and Kwan-Yin Kong EAS Department and NOAA CREST Center City College.
Advertisements

The Earth’s Energy Budget Chapter 3 Objectives Trace the flow of energy through the atmosphere.
Introduction to Oceanography
Analysis of Eastern Indian Ocean Cold and Warm Events: The air-sea interaction under the Indian monsoon background Qin Zhang RSIS, Climate Prediction Center,
Essentials of Oceanography
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 8) Climate Models Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 8 - Climate Models.
Seasonal & Diurnal Temp Variations ATS351 Lecture 3.
Mesoscale Urban Modeling: Inclusion of Anthropogenic Heating Najat Benbouta Environmental Emergency Response Division, CMC.
Variability in Ozone Profiles at TexAQS within the Context of an US Ozone Climatology Mohammed Ayoub 1, Mike Newchurch 1 2, Brian Vasel 3 Bryan Johnson.
Evidence of Climate Change in Orlando, Florida Josh Gray, Andrew Chin, Philip Womble, Sean Weyrich, Holly Padgett 04/21/2009.
Land And Sea Breezes Marine Layer Advection & Radiation Fog.
1 Observations of Cooling Summer Daytime Temperatures ( ) in Growing Urban Coastal California Air Basins Prof. Robert Bornstein Dept. of Meteorology,
NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather. Climate and Weather “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” -Robert A. Heinlein.
Summer fog variability in the coast redwood region: climatic relevance and ecological implications James A. Johnstone Department of Environmental Science,
Global-warming reverse-impact: observed summer-daytime coastal-cooling in coastal California air-basins R. Bornstein, San Jose State University
Observational and Modeling Study of Urbanization vs. Global Warming Impacts on SoCAB and SFBA Climate Bereket Lebassi Habtezion Ph.D. Candidate Department.
MM5 SIMMULATIONS OF MESOSCALE TRANSPORT FROM THE SFBA TO SACRAMENTO & SJV DURING A CCOS 30 JULY-02 AUG OZONE EPISODE By Tesfamichael B. Ghidey, LBNL,
Impacts from urban & rural surface modifications on meteorology and air quality in Houston: preliminary results Haider Taha Altostratus.
Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.
1 Cooling summer daytime temperatures in two urban coastal CA air basins during : observations and implications Prof. Robert Bornstein Dept. of.
1 NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather. 2 Review and Missed Items Pressure and Height-Exponential Relationship Temperature Profiles and Atmospheric.
Outline Further Reading: Chapter 05 of the text book - continental vs. marine regimes - temperature structure of the atmosphere - seasonal variations Natural.
Chapter 3. Why the Earth has seasons  Earth revolves in elliptical path around sun every 365 days.  Earth rotates counterclockwise or eastward every.
Robert Bornstein Jamie Favors, James Thomas, Allison Charland, Shawn Padrick Department of Meteorology and Climate Science San Jose State University 4.
PRESSURE, WINDS AND CIRCULATION PATTERNS
Earth Science 17.3 Temperature Controls
Climate is the state factor that most strongly governs the global pattern of ecosystem structure and function.
Atmospheric temperature
What is Climate? The long term average of weather, usually 30 years+
Evaporation Slides prepared by Daene C. McKinney and Venkatesh Merwade
Wind Science 101: I. Overview of Wind Patterns Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science Director,
Daily Temperature Variations. RECAP Seasonal variations on the Earth result from ♦ Different amount of solar energy received at a given location at a.
Verification and Case Studies for Urban Effects in HIRLAM Numerical Weather Forecasting A. Baklanov, A. Mahura, C. Petersen, N.W. Nielsen, B. Amstrup Danish.
Extreme Weather Trends over the Pacific Northwest Cliff Mass Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.
”On the sensitivity of Building Performance to the Urban Heat Island Effect” By Adil Rasheed, Darren Robinson, Alain Clappier.
Objective: To know that California’s climate is primarily Mediterranean and Highland.
“Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies on the Climate of Southern South Carolina and Northern Coastal Georgia ” Whitney Albright Joseph.
1/26 APPLICATION OF THE URBAN VERSION OF MM5 FOR HOUSTON University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Sylvain Dupont Collaborators: Steve Burian, Jason.
Chapter 6 Atmospheric Forces and Wind
Ocean Circulation.
C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.
Paper 1: UHI from Beijing Jin, S. M. 2012: Developing an Index to Measure Urban Heat Island Effect Using Satellite Land Skin Temperature and Land Cover.
Regional Air-Sea Interactions in Eastern Pacific 6th International RSM Workshop Palisades, New York July 11-15, th International RSM Workshop Palisades,
Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications: Introduction to NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications:
Thermal Energy The energy an object has due to the motion of its molecules. The energy an object has due to the motion of its molecules. The faster the.
Chapter 3 cont. (Heat & Temperatures). Heat & Temperature Basics temperature: the energy of molecular movement heat: a measure of the amount of energy.
Introduction 1. Climate – Variations in temperature and precipitation are now predictable with a reasonable accuracy with lead times of up to a year (
The Linear and Non-linear Evolution Mechanism of Mesoscale Vortex Disturbances in Winter Over Western Japan Sea Yasumitsu MAEJIMA and Keita IGA (Ocean.
Urban Heat Island and Pollution
17.1 Atmosphere Characteristics
Risk Factor: Mid-Century Warming in the LA Region (Climate Change/Temperature)
` Observations of Great Salt Lake Breezes During Salt Lake Valley Persistent Cold Air Pools Erik Crosman, John Horel, Neil Lareau, and Xia Dong University.
Application of the urbanized MM5 to the Houston-Galveston region by R. Bornstein*, H. Taha, R. Balmori, SJSU S. Dupont, J. Ching, RTP/EPA/NOAA A. Martilli,
CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering evolution of climate change since the industrial revolution 9 February 2012
Climate and Global Change Notes 17-1 Earth’s Radiation & Energy Budget Resulting Seasonal and Daily Temperature Variations Vertical Temperature Variation.
MODIS Atmosphere Products: The Importance of Record Quality and Length in Quantifying Trends and Correlations S. Platnick 1, N. Amarasinghe 1,2, P. Hubanks.
The ability for the ocean to absorb and store energy from the sun is due to… The transparency of the water that allows the sun’s ray to penetrate deep.
Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.
Mesoscale “Surprises” in Complex Terrain Revealed by Regional Climate Simulations Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.
Note: Winds are parallel to the lines of constant pressure height.
Mark A. Bourassa and Qi Shi
Climatology of coastal low level jets over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and the relationship with regional atmospheric circulations Delei Li1, Hans von.
Weather & Climate – MTDI 1200OL Plymouth State University
Weather, Climate & Society ATMO 336 Climate vs. Weather
Chapter 3 cont. (Heat & Temperatures)
1 GFDL-NOAA, 2 Princeton University, 3 BSC, 4 Cerfacs, 5 UCAR
Effect of Coastal Upwelling on Circulation and Climate
NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather
REGIONAL AND LOCAL-SCALE EVALUATION OF 2002 MM5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS FOR VARIOUS AIR QUALITY MODELING APPLICATIONS Pat Dolwick*, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC, USA.
NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather
Presentation transcript:

Observational and Modeling Study of Urbanization vs. Global Warming Impacts on SoCAB and SFBA Climate Bereket Lebassi Habtezion Ph.D. Candidate Prof. Jorge Gonzalez Advisor Department of Mechanical Engineering Santa Clara University Presented at CCNY 04 May 2010

Outline 1.Background and Hypothesis 2.Observational Study SFBA and SoCAB analysis Impacts on Energy 3.Simulation Setup Grid Configuration Land Use input Anthropogenic heating 4.Results & Validation GHG impacts Urbanization impacts 5. Conclusion

Motivation 1: Global Warming From NASA RESEARCH NEWS (2006), group led by James Hansen, GISS, NYC Earth has warmed approximately 0.2 K/decade for past 30 years, with max warming after Land temps has warmed faster than SSTs

Motivation 2: Interaction of coastal climate influences Global Global –Sea surface temps (SSTs) –ocean currents –GC pressure systems Mesoscale Mesoscale –sea/land breezes –mt/valley breezes –ocean upwelling –Land-use &/or Land-cover (LULC) changes –Urban heat islands (UHIs)

Earlier studies have related climate-change to increased (*=CA studies; modeling studies in yellow): SSTs, evap rate: *Goodridge ‘91, Karl et al. ‘93 SSTs, evap rate: *Goodridge ‘91, Karl et al. ‘93 Cloud cover changes: *Nemani et al. ’01 Cloud cover changes: *Nemani et al. ’01 Upwelling: *Bakun ‘90, *Snyder et al. ‘03; McGregor et al. ‘07 Upwelling: *Bakun ‘90, *Snyder et al. ‘03; McGregor et al. ‘07 Anthropogenic land cover conversions: Pielke et al. ’07, Anthropogenic land cover conversions: Pielke et al. ’07, Chase et al. ‘00; Mintz ‘84; Zhang ‘97 Chase et al. ‘00; Mintz ‘84; Zhang ‘97 Irrigation: *Christy et al. ’06, Lobell et al. ’06, *Kueppers et al. ’07, *Bonfils et al. ’07 Irrigation: *Christy et al. ’06, Lobell et al. ’06, *Kueppers et al. ’07, *Bonfils et al. ’07 GHGs: *Duffy et al. ’06, Walters et al. ’07, Cayan et al. ‘08 GHGs: *Duffy et al. ’06, Walters et al. ’07, Cayan et al. ‘08 UHIs: Ladochy et al. ’07 UHIs: Ladochy et al. ’07

The (LCLU + GW) Question on Urban Coastal Areas 1.What is the relative climatic impacts of global climate change in urban coastal regions? 2.Under these conditions of LCLU and global climate change, what are the combined effects in sea breezes, surface temperatures, precipitation, and extreme events?

a. GHG WARMING/LULC and/or and/or b. INCREASED INLAND WARMING  INCREASED HORIZONTAL T- & p-GRADIENTS (COAST TO INLAND)  (COAST TO INLAND)  INCREASED SEA BREEZE: FREQ, INTENSITY, PENETRATION, &/OR DURATION  PENETRATION, &/OR DURATION  COASTAL REGIONS DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE SHOULD THUS COOL DURING SUMMER DAYTIME PERIODS Current Hypothesis: Observed Calif temp trends resulted from

DATA NCDC DAILY MAX & MIN 2-METER TEMPS FROM 273 CALIF SITES (SEE MAP below) FROM NCDC DAILY MAX & MIN 2-METER TEMPS FROM 273 CALIF SITES (SEE MAP below) FROM NCDC MEAN MONTHLY GRIDDED SSTs NCDC MEAN MONTHLY GRIDDED SSTs –INTERNATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE 0CEAN- ATM DATA SET (ICOADS): –2 OR 1 DEG HORIZ RESOLUTION SCU DOWNSCALED REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING RESULTS FOR CALIF (10 KM RESOLUTION) FOR 21 ST CENTURY (SEE MAP below) SCU DOWNSCALED REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING RESULTS FOR CALIF (10 KM RESOLUTION) FOR 21 ST CENTURY (SEE MAP below)

ANALYSES Only data from (due to accelerated warming in the period) were used Only data from (due to accelerated warming in the period) were used Annual & summer (JJA) warming/cooling trends calculated ( 0 C/decade) for SST, T max, T min Annual & summer (JJA) warming/cooling trends calculated ( 0 C/decade) for SST, T max, T min Spatial distributions of JJA T max trends Spatial distributions of JJA T max trends plotted for plotted for –South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) –SFBA and Central Valley (CV) JJA land-sea T-gradient (as surrogate for JJA land-sea T-gradient (as surrogate for p-gradient) trends calculated from p-gradient) trends calculated from –mean monthly SSTs –2-m land T max values

SCU (Maurer) statistically 10-km downscaled mod- eled JJA temps ( 0 C) show total warming rates that decrease to coast (Dots are Calif NCDC sites & boxes are study sub-areas)

Result 1: Lebassi et al. (2009) J. of Climate Observed CA JJA max-Temp ( 0 C/decade)trends in SFBA & SoCAB showed concurrent: Observed CA JJA max-Temp ( 0 C/decade) trends in SFBA & SoCAB showed concurrent: > low-elev coastal-cooling & > high elev & inland-warming > low-elev coastal-cooling & > high elev & inland-warming > signif levels: solid circles >99% & open circles signif levels: solid circles >99% & open circles <90%)

Results 2: Same for SFBA & Central Valley COOLING AREAS: MARIN LOWLANDS, MONTEREY, SANTA CLARA V., LIVERMORE V., WESTERN HALF OF SACRAMENTO V.

T min (Curve b) increasing faster than T max (Curve c) Results 3: Temp. trends for all of California

Result 4: Combined SFBA & SoCAB summer trends ( o C decade -1 ) of T max (Curves c) warming Inland T max warming sites cooling Coastal T max cooling sites (a) (b) (c) (d)

p-increases (up to 0.34 hPa decade-1) in Pacific High p-decreases (up to -0.8 hPa decade-1) in Calif- Nevada thermal Low p-gradient trend in next slide Result 5: Average JJA 1.4 deg ERA40-reanalysis SLP trends (hPa/decade) at 11 LT for Arrow shows SLP- gradient calc. end-points Arrow shows SLP- gradient calc. end-points Plus & minus are High & Low pressure centers, respectively. Plus & minus are High & Low pressure centers, respectively

Result 6: Trend in ocean-land summer SLP-gradient (hPa 100-km -1 decade -1 ) at 11 LT at end-points in previous slide Results show: p-gradient increases in both areas  increased sea breeze

Result 7: Implications on Calif Energy Usage Lebassi et. al (2010) J. of Solar Energy and Sustainability (a) Cooling Degree Day (CDD) trend: upward due to GHG warming  (a) Cooling Degree Day (CDD) trend: upward due to GHG warming  More energy for cooling (b) Heating Degree Day (HDD) ue you to GHG warming  (b) Heating Degree Day (HDD) trend: downward due you to GHG warming  Less energy for heating

Result 8: Peak Summer Electricity Trends for in (Kw/person/decade) from LA Dept of Water & Power (LDWP), Pasadena, & Riversides Results show: Coastal LDWP & Pasadena: down- ward trend Inland Riverside: upward trend

SUMMARY 1: OF OBS STUDY SUMMER DAYTIME MAX-TEMPS HAVE SUMMER DAYTIME MAX-TEMPS HAVE –COOLED IN LOW-ELEVATION COASTAL AREAS –WARMED IN INLAND AREAS PREVIOUS STUDIES DREW WRONG CONCLUSIONS B/C PREVIOUS STUDIES DREW WRONG CONCLUSIONS B/C – They did not separate summer vs. winter, day vs. night, &/or inland vs. coastal – Therefore, their T max were wrong and thus their T ave & DTRs were contaminated

Modeling Effort Introduction to Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

RAMS RANS Cartesian Equations Momentum eqs for u, v & w Thermodynamic eq for ice-liquid water potential-temp Water Species (n-species, e.g. vapor, ice, snow, …) (1) (2) (3) Latent heat & RFD Sources & sinks via phase changes Local ∆ = Advection + p-grad + Coriolis + Turbulent Diffusion K m, h : eddy diffusivity coef. for momentum & heat.

(4) (5) (6) (7) Continuity eq for π Ideal Gas Law for density Poisson eq for T v Exner function for pressure In summary: prog eqs for u, v, w, ө il, r n, π′ diag eqs for π, ρ, p, T v

Vertical Diffusion Coef K m,h,e via TKE (e) Shear Production Buoyancy Molec Dissipation S m,h,e are f(Ri) l is mixing length

Vertical Boundary Conditions  z= H (model top) = 18.8 km  Rigid lid, with Rayleigh friction layer of 4 km  w = 0  z= h (SBL top) = 50 m  Continuity of fluxes, gradients, & profiles  z= 0 (sfc)  Sfc energy balance Eq in LEAF3  No slip BC: V = 0  z=H s (bottom soil layer) =1 m  Constant temperature from large scale model

For sfc BC for T(t): RAMS uses LEAF-3 “big leaf” model to solve sfc energy balance at each sfc-type, e.g., for all-urban (no veg or evaporation) sfc Terms on RHS of eq (L to R): ↓ solar rad absorbed at sfc ↓ IR rad from atm absorbed at sfc ↑ IR rad from sfc ↑ IR rad from urban sfc Note: rad terms come from complex rad transfer model convective heat to atm [where ( ) * quantities come from SBL-eq ] ground heat to atm (where ө s comes prog soil temp eq) anthro heat to atm. (specified, in up-comimg slide) Finally: sum of RHS terms yields trend of building canopy temp θ u, which When added to past value gives current value.

ClassαεFVFV H V (m) Short grass Low intensity Urban High Intensity Urban Parameter values for different urban classes where all symbols are defined as: αAlbedo ε Emissivity F V Vegetation Fraction H V Vegetation Height

RAMS simulations of SoCAB Area

Selected past ( ) & present ( ) simulation periods have similar PDO & temp variations  large scale variability effects are eliminated Note: ENSO impacts are mainly in winter in this area

Research goal: separate-out effects of urbanization & GHG warming on Research goal: separate-out effects of urbanization & GHG warming on observed Lebassi et al. (2009) SoCAB JJA max-temp trends observed Lebassi et al. (2009) SoCAB JJA max-temp trends use RAMS to simulate these changes use RAMS to simulate these changes RAMS simulations RAMS simulations Runs 1 vs. 3: Runs 1 vs. 3: Research question: Effects of global climate-change? Research question: Effects of global climate-change? Run 1: current Run 1: current urban LULC (NOAA 2002) at 30-m resolution urban LULC (NOAA 2002) at 30-m resolution global-climate & SSTs for five JJA-periods (2001 to 2005) global-climate & SSTs for five JJA-periods (2001 to 2005) Run 3: uses Run 3: uses Run 1 (Current 2002) LULC Run 1 (Current 2002) LULC global climate & SSTs for five past JJA-periods (1966 to 1970) global climate & SSTs for five past JJA-periods (1966 to 1970) Runs 1 vs. 2: Runs 1 vs. 2: Research question: Effects of urbanization? Research question: Effects of urbanization? Run 1: one-year of Run 1 (2002) Run 1: one-year of Run 1 (2002) Run 2: pre-urban Run 2: pre-urban LULC: all urban turned to local dominant class, i.e., scrubland LULC: all urban turned to local dominant class, i.e., scrubland over-estimate of max urbanization effects over-estimate of max urbanization effects 2002 JJA global-climate & SSTs 2002 JJA global-climate & SSTs Methodology

Model initialized Model initialized 0000 UTC = 17 LT 0000 UTC = 17 LT 1 June of given year 1 June of given year 12-hr spin up: 1 st night 12-hr spin up: 1 st night Large scale BCs Large scale BCs every 6-hr every 6-hr from gridded NCEP global-model output from gridded NCEP global-model output ICs and Large-scale BCs (FDDA)

> Arakawa-C staggered grid staggered grid  Horiz nested-grid resolution resolution - Grid 1: 20 km - Grid 2: 4 km Vertical Grid Vertical Grid > 49 levels to 31 km  Δz = 40 m (near sfc)  1.15 stretch-ratio  Δz =1.2 km (aloft)  Δz = 1.2 km (aloft) Grid Configuration

Grid 2 (4 km): present (2002) LULC-classes Lines: key topographic-heights (+ = peaks) Lines: key topographic-heights (+ = peaks) Input: 30-m NOAA LULC  RAMS’s Leaf-3 classifications Input: 30-m NOAA LULC  RAMS’s Leaf-3 classifications Output colors: dominant class; parameter values as weighed averages Output colors: dominant class; parameter values as weighed averages Veg: greens Veg: greens Urban: browns Urban: browns Black squares: METAR stations for RAMS evaluation Black squares: METAR stations for RAMS evaluation

Initial visible Google map for typical urban class 19 > Resulting 2-color visible image: building are white (52%): & vegetation + streets are black (48%) > Thus (48-32%=) 16% are streets Resulting 1- color visible image: 32% is veg & 68% is roof + street Methodology: visible Google map Start w/ visible Google map for typical SoCAB urban area (Map-a) Change Map-a to 16-color image (Map-b) & count fraction of green pixels (32%) Change Map-a to 2-color image (Map-c) > where white fraction is rooftop & black fraction is thus veg + streets > Street fraction is thus black fraction minus green fraction (from Map-b) Only veg fraction info can be input into current RAMS lookup-table (a) (b) (c) New Tech: determination of urban Veg, Rooftop, & Street fractions

Summer CA-building electricity fraction Traffic-profile (%): red is US & blue is LA Anthropogenic heat flux: Sailor and Lu (2004) Where:  ρ pop (t)Population density [person/km 2 ] : from US census  F V (t)Non-dimensional vehicle traffic-profile (lower right slide)  E V Vehicle energy-used [W/km]: from DOT  DVDDistance traveled per person [km]: from DOT Total profile

Model Validation with Run-1 (current met & LU) output: June 1-10, 2002; averages for 12 SoCAB METAR sites Where: blue is obs & red is closest RAMS grid point Mean wind speeds: both at 10-m Mean temps: both at 2-m Model =3.1 m/s vs. obs = 2.9 m/s Model = 20.2 o C vs. obs = 19.3 o C

(a) Model vs. Observation Correlation red wind, blue temp, (b) JJA daily Tmax averaged over 15 COOP station (c) Model vs. Observation Correlation for (b). Correlation: Temp: r 2 = (blue) Temp: r 2 = (blue) WS: r 2 = 0.82 (red) WS: r 2 = 0.82 (red) Correlation: T max : r 2 = T max : r 2 = Past Validation: 1970 JJA T max 1970 JJA T max Model (red); Obs (blue) Model (red); Obs (blue) T max ave diff = 0.7 o C T max ave diff = 0.7 o C

RAMS Results 1: 19-m spatial-patterns Temp and wind results from –Run 1: current climate and current urbanization –Run 2: current climate and no-urbanization –Run 1 minus Run 2 –Run 3: past climate and current urbanization –Run 1 minus Run 3

GHG WARMING RESULTS: NEXT 10 SLIDES

ICOADS BC-SST input to RAMS Box is D-2 RAMS-interpolated D-1: JJA 5-yr ave. (constant for given summer) Top L: Run-1 SST (orig. resolution: 1 deg) Top R: Run-3 SST (orig. resolution: 2 deg) Lower: Run-1 minus Run-3 SST (N-P) Large-scale SST results: NW-cooling is also a large-scale effect warming has max-change in south Past Now N- P

NCEP SLP 17-LT JJA 5-yr Aves. Top L: Run-1 (orig. resolution: 2.5 deg) Top R: Run-3 (orig. resolution: 2.5 deg) Lower: Run-1 minus Run-3 (N-P); Dashed box is p- calculation in observational study Results: Location of H: didn’t change much Mag diminished over most of ocean Peak change over center of H Increases both N & S of center H Max decrease over Mx coast due to expansion of L PastNow N- P H L H L

Present & Past 17-LT JJA-ave NCEP 1000 hPa T(K) BC input to RAMS every 6-hr for periods of Run-1& Run-3 BC input to RAMS every 6-hr for periods of Run-1& Run-3 Results: Hot inland (H) & cool ocean (C) Centers of hot & cool moved to SE; White boxes D-1 & D-2 Centers of hot & cool moved to SE; White boxes D-1 & D-2 Changes best seen in next slide Changes best seen in next slide Now Past T(K) C H H C

Left Slide: vertical section (from Fig on right) Violet-line is land-area Violet-line is land-area Green D-1; White D-2 Green D-1; White D-2Results: cooling up to 980-hPa or 400-m cooling up to 980-hPa or 400-m Max warming at 350 hPa or 1.6 km Max warming at 350 hPa or 1.6 km Right slide: horizontal section Boxes are D-1 & D-2 Boxes are D-1 & D-2 Area of slide: only west part of prev SLP slide Area of slide: only west part of prev SLP slide Dash-line: z-section in slide at Right Dash-line: z-section in slide at Right Results: Results: Inland warming (+) & off-shore cooling (-) Inland warming (+) & off-shore cooling (-) Center of cooling is b/t coast & Center of cooling is b/t coast & center of H (previous slide) center of H (previous slide) Present minus Past 17-LT JJA-Ave NCEP 1000 hPa T(K) Present minus Past 17-LT JJA-Ave NCEP 1000 hPa ΔT(K) N - P

12 LT14 LT 16 LT RAMS Run-1 (present) JJA-Ave D-1 T(K) & V (barb = 1 m/s); Box is D-2 Results: Cool: ocean & Mt-coastal areas Warm inland 12 LT: SB & upslope flows started 14 LT: Both flows more-developed 16 LT: combined SB & slope winds

14 LT 12 LT 16 LT RAMS Run-1 (present) minus Run-3 (past) JJA-Ave D-1 T(K) & V (barb = 0.4 m/s); Box is D-2 Results: Ocean warming < inland warming 12 LT: change in T & SB started; coastal cooling started 14 LT: SB accelerated; coastal cooling filled the basin 16 LT: SB started to slow down; coastal cooling reached max

RAMS JJA-Averaged D-2, ∆ T(K) & ∆V ( barb = 0.5 m s -1 ) Results: Ocean warming < inland warming 12 LT: change in T & SB started; coastal cooling started 14 LT: SB accelerated; coastal cooling filled the basin 16 LT: SB started to slow down; coastal cooling reached max Inland warming (up to 2.0 k) greater than SST warming (up to 0.5 K). GHG warming over land (1-2 K)  increased sea breeze flow (1-2 m/s)  cooler temps over coastal areas (up to -1 K)GHG warming over land (1-2 K)  increased sea breeze flow (1-2 m/s)  cooler temps over coastal areas (up to -1 K) Stronger HPGF accelerates on shore directed flow (by 2 m/s),Stronger HPGF accelerates on shore directed flow (by 2 m/s), Statistical Analysis is seen on the Next slide 14 LT 12 LT 16 LT

Two tailed stat. sig. values for for the T, U & V TUV 19 UTC 21 UTC 23 UTC ∆ T : The coastal cooling, the SST change, and the inland warming are significant at >99%; Less significant (at down to 99%; Less significant (at down to <90%, light yellow) results due to cancellation of larger GHG warming by cooling due to increased marine flows ∆U∆Vl: Most of the change in the u & v winds are also significant at 99%. There are less significant areas over the ocean (19 UTC) when the sea breeze change is not strong and over the land (23 UTC) when the sea breeze starts to weaken. ∆U and ∆V l: Most of the change in the u & v winds are also significant at 99%. There are less significant areas over the ocean (19 UTC) when the sea breeze change is not strong and over the land (23 UTC) when the sea breeze starts to weaken.

Vertical cross-section at 33.85N Temperature & wind Top right Run-1 (present): cold to 500 m; warming in the inland valleys & hills; inversion top at 900 m; inversion base at 50 m Top left Run-3 (past): same as left; inversion top at 750 m; no inversion base detected, Bottom right Run-1 (present): - Shallow warming over the ocean, due to the SST increases - Coastal cooling over land; inland warming over inland valleys and hills - A nother cooling layer over the ocean (up to 500 m) due to large scale cooling Past Now N - P

Stat. sig. for the vertical cross section of temperature changes of Domain-2 at N Bottom left, statistical sig. for the difference field: The SST warming, the cooling over the ocean and the coastal cooling are significant at > 99%. Bottom left, statistical sig. for the difference field: The SST warming, the cooling over the ocean and the coastal cooling are significant at > 99%.

Vertical cross of w (cm/s) at 14 LT Top L Run-1 (present): Subsidence over the ocean; upwared motion over land Top R Run-3 (past): Similar to Run-1 Bottom: Run-1 minus Run-3 (N-P) Subsidence increased Increased upward motion over the coastal plain and inland hills; separate from the ocean

Urban: Urban area warming (up to 1.0 K); Sea breeze retardation i.e. Run-1 vector is onshore & difference vector is still offshore due to z- deceleration) Urban: Urban area warming (up to 1.0 K); Sea breeze retardation i.e. Run-1 vector is onshore & difference vector is still offshore due to z 0 - deceleration) Rural: still some warm air adv, small warming (up to 0.2 K) ; mountain top has still cooled perhaps due to induced secondary-circulations JJA 2002, 19, 21 & 23 UTC: Run 1 minus Run 2 Temp & Wind Differences URBANIZATION RESULT: 12 LT 14 LT 16 LT T (K)

Summary Summary The effects of urbanization & GHG changes in SoCAB were studied – by analysis of RAMS meso-met model wind and temp output – by comparison of the RAMS output temp with obs Increased GHGs from Run-3 to Run-2 resulted in Increased GHGs from Run-3 to Run-2 resulted in > increased sea breeze over ocean and coastal plains, and thus > increased sea breeze over ocean and coastal plains, and thus > a sea-breeze induced coastal-cooling over the coastal plains > a sea-breeze induced coastal-cooling over the coastal plains Urbanization produces Urbanization produces > A heating over the City and > A heating over the City and > slowing of sea breeze penetration (due to large urban z 0 ) > slowing of sea breeze penetration (due to large urban z 0 ) Implications Implications > Lower energy use for cooling > Lower energy use for cooling > Lower heat stress levels > Lower heat stress levels > Lower O3 > Lower O3 > Benefits for agriculture sensitive to temperature > Benefits for agriculture sensitive to temperature

Other Places that regional sea-land interaction might occur From IPCC

Future work Post-PhD efforts will include > Some scientific scientific question: What are the future changes in coastal cooling ? What are the future changes in coastal cooling ? When and how coastal cooling stops if it does? When and how coastal cooling stops if it does? Is there an index that can measure the existence of coastal cooling in other areas? Is there an index that can measure the existence of coastal cooling in other areas? > Observational data analysis extend temp analysis to other months, extend temp analysis to other months, extreme values extreme values Coastal vs. inland station classification index Coastal vs. inland station classification index > Modeling Future Simulation and quantification of GHG vs. LULC impact Future Simulation and quantification of GHG vs. LULC impact RAMS simulations of SFBA RAMS simulations of SFBA > Impact analyses Energy use, Energy use, Air quality, Air quality, Heat stress Heat stress Ozone Ozone

Lebassi, B. H, J. E. González, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, C. Milesi, and R. Bornstein, 2010: RAMS modeled differences between 1970 and 2005 summer daytime temperatures and winds in coastal Southern California. J. Clim. (In review). Lebassi, B. H, J. E. González, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, C. Milesi, and R. Bornstein, 2010: RAMS modeled differences between 1970 and 2005 summer daytime temperatures and winds in coastal Southern California. J. Clim. (In review). Lebassi, B. H, J. E. González, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, C. Milesi, P. Switzer, and R. Bornstein, 2009: Observed cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California, J. Clim., 22, , doi: /2008JCLI Lebassi, B. H, J. E. González, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, C. Milesi, P. Switzer, and R. Bornstein, 2009: Observed cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California, J. Clim., 22, , doi: /2008JCLI Lebassi, B., J. JE. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and, D. Fabris, 2009: Regional impacts in the coastal California environment from a changing climate. Accepted, Journal of Solar Energy and Sustainability. Lebassi, B., J. JE. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and, D. Fabris, 2009: Regional impacts in the coastal California environment from a changing climate. Accepted, Journal of Solar Energy and Sustainability. Lebassi B., D. Fabris, J. E. Gonzalez, S. Zarantonello, S. Chiappari, N. L. Miller, and R. Bornstein, 2005: Urban heat islands in California’s Central Valley, BAMS, Lebassi B., D. Fabris, J. E. Gonzalez, S. Zarantonello, S. Chiappari, N. L. Miller, and R. Bornstein, 2005: Urban heat islands in California’s Central Valley, BAMS, JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

Presentation and extended abstract publications RAMS modeled differences between 1970 and 2005 summer day time temperatures and winds in coastal California, B. Lebassi, and JE. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, presented at the 34th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Monterey, CA, October 26-30, RAMS modeled differences between 1970 and 2005 summer day time temperatures and winds in coastal California, B. Lebassi, and JE. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, presented at the 34th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Monterey, CA, October 26-30, Modelling the Impacts of Urbanization vs. Green House Gas Warming in Southern California Coasts, B. Lebassi, and J. JE. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, Second International Conference on Countermeasures to Urban Heat Islands, LBNL, Berkeley, California, September, Modelling the Impacts of Urbanization vs. Green House Gas Warming in Southern California Coasts, B. Lebassi, and J. JE. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, Second International Conference on Countermeasures to Urban Heat Islands, LBNL, Berkeley, California, September, Regional energy-use impacts in the coastal California environment from a changing climate, B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and R. Van Buskirk, The 7th International conf on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan. June 29- July 3, Regional energy-use impacts in the coastal California environment from a changing climate, B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and R. Van Buskirk, The 7th International conf on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan. June 29- July 3, Modeling differences between 1970 and 2005 summer daytime temperatures in coastal California, B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, the 7th International conf on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan. June 29- July 3, Modeling differences between 1970 and 2005 summer daytime temperatures in coastal California, B. Lebassi, J. Gonzalez, and R. Bornstein, the 7th International conf on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan. June 29- July 3, Regional Impacts on Energy Demands from a Changing Climate in the Coastal California Environment, B. Lebassi, JE. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, and R. Bornstein, Inaugural US-EU-China Thermophysics Conf. Renewable Energy, UECTC (Invited Paper). Beijing, China, May, Regional Impacts on Energy Demands from a Changing Climate in the Coastal California Environment, B. Lebassi, JE. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, and R. Bornstein, Inaugural US-EU-China Thermophysics Conf. Renewable Energy, UECTC (Invited Paper). Beijing, China, May, Cooling summer daytime temperatures in two urban coastal California air basins during : observations and implications, R. Bornstein, B. Lebassi, E. Maurer, P. Switzer, and J. E. Gonzalez, presented 8th Conf. on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, 89th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, January Cooling summer daytime temperatures in two urban coastal California air basins during : observations and implications, R. Bornstein, B. Lebassi, E. Maurer, P. Switzer, and J. E. Gonzalez, presented 8th Conf. on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, 89th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, January Regional Impacts on Energy Demands from a Changing Climate in Coastal California Environments, 2009: J.E. Gonzalez, B. Lebassi, R. D. Bornstein, H. Taha, and R. D. Van Buskirk, presented at Eighth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, 89th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, January Regional Impacts on Energy Demands from a Changing Climate in Coastal California Environments, 2009: J.E. Gonzalez, B. Lebassi, R. D. Bornstein, H. Taha, and R. D. Van Buskirk, presented at Eighth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, 89th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, January Observed and simulated California climate trends due to concurrent long-term inland-warming and coastal-cooling, B. Lebassi, and J. E. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and D. Fabris; presented at The 17th Joint Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification/Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting, Westminster, CO, April Observed and simulated California climate trends due to concurrent long-term inland-warming and coastal-cooling, B. Lebassi, and J. E. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, and D. Fabris; presented at The 17th Joint Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification/Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting, Westminster, CO, April RAMS simulations of a global-warming reverse-reaction: California coastal summer daytime cooling, B. Lebassi, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA; and J. E. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, C. Milesi, and R. Bornstein; present at 88th AMS conference, 20th Conf on Climate Variability and Change, New Orleans, LA, January, RAMS simulations of a global-warming reverse-reaction: California coastal summer daytime cooling, B. Lebassi, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA; and J. E. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, C. Milesi, and R. Bornstein; present at 88th AMS conference, 20th Conf on Climate Variability and Change, New Orleans, LA, January, Observations of a global-warming reverse-reaction: California coastal summer daytime cooling, R. Bornstein, B. Lebassi, J. E. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, and C. Milesi; present 88th AMS Conf, 20th Conf on Climate Variability and Change. New Orleans, January, Observations of a global-warming reverse-reaction: California coastal summer daytime cooling, R. Bornstein, B. Lebassi, J. E. Gonzalez, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, N. L. Miller, and C. Milesi; present 88th AMS Conf, 20th Conf on Climate Variability and Change. New Orleans, January, Spatial and Temporal Changes in Climatological Degree-Days in California, B. Lebassi. E. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, D. Fabris, Energy Sustainability, Long Beach, CA, January, Spatial and Temporal Changes in Climatological Degree-Days in California, B. Lebassi. E. Gonzalez, R. Bornstein, D. Fabris, Energy Sustainability, Long Beach, CA, January, Observed long-term California temperature-trends: coastal cooling and inland warming, 2007: B. Lebassi, J. E. Gonzles, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, R. Bornstein, and N. L. Miller; presented at 87th AMS annual Symposium, Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, Santa Antonio, TX, January, Observed long-term California temperature-trends: coastal cooling and inland warming, 2007: B. Lebassi, J. E. Gonzles, D. Fabris, E. Maurer, R. Bornstein, and N. L. Miller; presented at 87th AMS annual Symposium, Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, Santa Antonio, TX, January, Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover on Regional Summer Time Coastal Cooling and Inland Warming in Central California, 2007: Jorge E. González, B. Lebassi and R. Bornstein; presented at Seventh Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, San Diego California, September, Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover on Regional Summer Time Coastal Cooling and Inland Warming in Central California, 2007: Jorge E. González, B. Lebassi and R. Bornstein; presented at Seventh Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, San Diego California, September, Modeling urban heat islands in California central valley, B. Lebassi, J. E. González, D. Fabris, N. L. Miller, and C. Milesi; presented at 86th AMS annual Symposium, Sixth Sym on the Urban Environment, Atlanta, GA. Jan 28- Feb 3, Modeling urban heat islands in California central valley, B. Lebassi, J. E. González, D. Fabris, N. L. Miller, and C. Milesi; presented at 86th AMS annual Symposium, Sixth Sym on the Urban Environment, Atlanta, GA. Jan 28- Feb 3, Climatology temperature mapping for California urban heat island study site selection, Lebassi Bereket, D. Fabris, J. E. Gonzalez, S. Zarantonello, S. Chiappari, N. L. Miller, and R. Bornstein. Presented at Atm Sci and Air Quality Conf., San Francisco, CA, April, Climatology temperature mapping for California urban heat island study site selection, Lebassi Bereket, D. Fabris, J. E. Gonzalez, S. Zarantonello, S. Chiappari, N. L. Miller, and R. Bornstein. Presented at Atm Sci and Air Quality Conf., San Francisco, CA, April, 2005.

Thank You! Any Questions?