PART 7 檢視總體經濟 13 GDP 與生活水準 CHAPTER

C H A P T E R C H E C K L I S T 學習本章後，您將能： 定義 GDP，並解釋生產價值、所得與支出對經濟而言是 一體的兩面 1 描述 GDP 的衡量 2 區分實質 GDP 與名目 GDP，並定義 GDP 平減指數 3 描述並解釋實質 GDP 作為生活水準指標的限制 4

GDP 的定義 13.1 GDP、所得與支出 國內生產毛額 GDP 一國國內在特定期間生產的最終貨品或服務之市場價值總和 生產的價值 以市場價值來決定生產的價值 Focus your students on the definition of GDP--the market value of all the final goods and services produced within a country in a given time period. Ask your students to go through the definition and pull out the essential parts. You will get this list: market value, final goods and services, produced, within a country, and time period. Explain that the words chosen in this definition were selected carefully. First, if the phrase “market value” had been left out, there would be room for lots of problems. Notice that when the government reports this figure, it doesn’t announce how many trains, planes, and automobiles the country has produced but rather it announces a monetary value. Using monetary values affords us the opportunity to be able to get around the problem of aggregation when the items in question are markedly different. We solve it by allowing the marketplace to determine the weights. The second item on the list is “final goods and services.” The explanation here is straightforward: We are distinguishing between final products and intermediate products. Intermediate goods are goods that are bought by one firm to be used in the production of another good that will be ultimately consumed. If we include these intermediate goods, then we would double count the nation’s output. Now we come to the word “produced.” This word is to make clear that sales are not important. If we only counted sales, then the GDP figures would understate production because not all output is sold. Some of it becomes inventory. Next is the phrase “within a country.” This phrase is to make clear that we don’t count output that wasn’t produced on a nation’s soil regardless of who was responsible for producing it. Lastly, is the phrase “time period.” Here we want to make unambiguous that we are only talking about production that occurred in a certain period. This phrase leaves no doubt that production of a good or service produced in a previous time period (even if perhaps sold in the present time period) does not count in this period’s GDP.

13.1 GDP、所得與支出 最終貨品或服務 中間貨品或服務 生產的貨品 提供給最終使用者的完整貨品或服務 最終貨品或服務的組成要素

13.1 GDP、所得與支出 生產的地點 一國之內產出的貨品與服務才被包含在內 生產的時間 一段特定期間內的生產價值

循環流量圖 13.1 GDP、所得與支出 消費支出 投資 指家計單位消費貨品與服務的支出 指新資本財 (工具、設備、機器、廠房等) 的購買支出，以及庫存的增加

13.1 GDP、所得與支出 政府支出 為政府購買貨品與服務的支出 淨出口 為貨品與服務的出口值減去進口值

13.1 GDP、所得與支出 總支出為上述四種支出的總和 C 代表消費支出 I 代表投資 G 代表政府支出 NX 代表淨出口

支出等於所得 13.1 GDP、所得與支出 廠商將全部流入支付給生產要素，成為生產要素的所得，因此總所得等於總支出： Y = C + I + G + NX 生產價值等於所得，亦等於支出

13.1 GDP、所得與支出 圖 13.1 所得與支出的循環流量模型

The Expenditure Approach 13.2 MEASURING U.S. GDP The Expenditure Approach Measures GDP by using data on consumption expenditure, investment, government expenditure on goods and services, and net exports. You might like to tell your students that measuring real GDP is actually very cheap. The BEA (in the Department of Commerce) employs fewer than 500 economists, accountants, statisticians, and IT specialists at an annual cost of less that $70 million. It costs each American less than 0.25¢ (a quarter of a cent) to measure the value of the nation’s production. For some further perspective, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (also in the Department of Commerce), whose mission is to “describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, and conserve and manage wisely the nation’s coastal and marine resources so as to ensure sustainable economic opportunities,” employs more than 11,000 scientists and support personnel at an annual cost of $3.2 billion!

支出面法 13.2 衡量 GDP 支出面法加總了消費支出、投資、政府支出與淨出口 You might like to tell your students that measuring real GDP is actually very cheap. The BEA (in the Department of Commerce) employs fewer than 500 economists, accountants, statisticians, and IT specialists at an annual cost of less that $70 million. It costs each American less than 0.25¢ (a quarter of a cent) to measure the value of the nation’s production. For some further perspective, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (also in the Department of Commerce), whose mission is to “describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, and conserve and manage wisely the nation’s coastal and marine resources so as to ensure sustainable economic opportunities,” employs more than 11,000 scientists and support personnel at an annual cost of $3.2 billion!

13.2 衡量 GDP 未包含在 GDP 的支出 二手貨品 GDP 計算的是特定期間內生產出的貨品與服務，二手貨品的價值屬於其出產年份的 GDP 金融資產 購買股票與債券等金融資產並非購買貨品與服務

所得面法 13.2 衡量 GDP 所得面法主要依據生產要素的所得 ─ 勞動的工資、資本的利得、土地的租金與企業行為的利潤 Most of the income data used by the BEA comes from the IRS. Expenditure data comes from a variety of sources. In recent years, the first estimates of GDP, which are based on companies reported profits, have been revised downward when data on company profits as reported to the IRS became available. Enron-style accounting has contaminated the initial estimates of GDP but not the final estimates. You can make a nice point with one example of creative accounting. For some years, in its reports to shareholders AOL recorded its advertising expenditure as investment and amortized it over a number of years. First, you can explain that the correct treatment of this item is as an expenditure on intermediate goods and services by AOL and as a charge against AOL profit. The expenditure on AOL services is the value of AOL’s production. And AOL’s expenditure on advertising is part of the value of the production of the advertising agencies used by AOL. You can go on to explain that AOL accounting practice would misleadingly swell GDP by causing some double counting. On the expenditure approach, AOL’s advertising expenditure shows up as investment in the national accounts. On the income approach, because the expenditure is not a cost, it swells profit, so AOL’s corporate profit increases by the same amount as its “investment.” If AOL filed its income tax return in this same way, the national income accounts wouldn’t get corrected. But when AOL files its tax returns, it calls its advertising a cost and lowers its profits by that amount, the BEA picks up these numbers from the IRS and the national accounts get adjusted appropriately.

13.2 衡量 GDP 工資 勞動者的工資稱為受雇者薪資，包含工資、薪水、津貼，同時也包含健康保險、 失業保險與年金。

13.2 衡量 GDP 利息所得、租金與利潤 利息所得為家計單位儲蓄的利息收入減去貸款的利息支出 租金包含出借土地與房屋的所得 利潤包含公司利潤與業主收入，業主收入是獨資或合資者經營自有公司的所得

13.2 衡量 GDP 要素成本轉換成市場價格 支出面法的所得是以貨品與服務的市場價值計算，因此必須將要素成本轉換成市場價格，間接稅 (例如銷售稅) 與補貼使得要素成本與市場價格產生差異。 銷售稅導致市場價格高於要素成本，補貼使得要素成本高於市場價格。 為了將要素成本轉換成市場價格： 工資、利息、租金與利潤的總和必須加上間接稅並減去補貼

折舊 指因為使用或陳舊過時產生資本財價值的減少 13.2 衡量 GDP 毛額與淨額 所得面法包含減去折舊的利潤，衡量的是生產淨額；而支出面法包含投資，亦即購買新的資本財來取代耗費的資本財，衡量的是生產毛額，兩種方法的差別 折舊 指因為使用或陳舊過時產生資本財價值的減少 為了計算國內生產毛額，必須將折舊加入總所得。

13.2 衡量 GDP

13.2 衡量 GDP 統計差額 支出面法與所得面法計算的 GDP 並不相等

GDP 與相關的生產與所得指標 13.2 衡量 GDP 國民生產毛額 GNP 一國國民在特定期間生產的最終貨品與服務的市場價值總和 GNP = GDP + 國外的淨要素所得

總支出的最大成分為消費支出，影響消費支出的主要因素之一為個人可支配所得 13.2 衡量 GDP 個人可支配所得 總支出的最大成分為消費支出，影響消費支出的主要因素之一為個人可支配所得 為家計單位繳納所得稅後的所得

13.2 衡量 GDP 圖 13.2 GDP與相關的生產與所得指標

計算實質 GDP 13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 實質 GDP 名目 GDP 以基期的價格，計算特定年間最終貨品與服務的市場價值總和 以當期的價格與數量，計算最終貨品與服務的市場價值總和 計算實質 GDP 的方式近年來有所改變，以下將介紹傳統與近來的計算方式。

計算實質 GDP 的傳統方式 13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 假設某一國家只生產蘋果與柳橙，並以 2000 年為基期，而 2006 年為當期 因 2000 年為基期，實質 GDP 與名目 GDP 相等

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 2000 年的價格與生產數量： 蘋果的市場價值 = 60 個蘋果 x $0.5 = $30 柳橙的市場價值 = 80 個柳橙 x $0.25 = $20 2000 年的名目 GDP = $30 + $20 = $50

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 2006 年的價格與生產數量 : 蘋果的市場價值 = 160 個蘋果 x $0.5 = $80 柳橙的市場價值 = 220 個柳橙 x $0.25 = $55 2006 年的實質GDP = $80 + $55 = $135

計算 GDP 的價格連鎖方式 13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 傳統計算 GDP 的方式是利用基期的價格。 We’ve included this material on the chained-dollar method because it is the method actually used today. But it might be too technical for your students. Not much is lost by sticking with the traditional method.

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 步驟 1：以 2005 年的價格計算 2005 年與 2006 年的生產價值 2005 年： 蘋果的市場價值 = 100 個蘋果 x $1.5 = $150 柳橙的市場價值 = 200 個蘋果 x $0.75 = $150 2005 年的名目 GDP = $150 + $150 = $300

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 2006 年: 蘋果的市場價值 = 160 個蘋果 x $1.5 = $240 以 2005 年價格計算 2006 年的生產價值 = $240 + $165 = $405

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 以 2005 年的價格計算： 2005 年的生產價值為 $300. 2006 年的生產價值為 $405. 以 2005 年的價格計算，2006 年的生產價值上升 $105，增加了 35 %

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 步驟 2：以 2006 年的價格計算 2005 年與 2006 年的生產價值 2005 年： 蘋果的市場價值 = 100 個蘋果 x $1.00 = $100 柳橙的市場價值 = 200 個柳橙 x $2.00 = $400 以 2005 年價格計算 2006 年的生產價值 = $100 + $400 = $500

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 2006 年： 蘋果的市場價值 = 160 個蘋果 x $1.00 = $160

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 以 2006 年的價格計算： 2005 年的生產價值為 $500. 2006 年的生產價值為 $600. 以 2006 年的價格計算，2006 年的生產價值上升 $100，增加了 20 %

13.3名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 步驟 3：計算生產價值變動百分比的平均值： 以 2005 年價格計算的 35 % 以 2006 年價格計算的 20 % 35% 與 20% 的平均值為 27.5% — 此為 2005 與 2006 年間的 GDP 成長率 如表 13.6 (a) 所示

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 步驟 4 重複步驟 1 至 3，回溯至 2000 年的基期，建立由基期至當年的每一年實質 GDP 成長率 步驟 5 根據 2000 年的實質 GDP (也是 2000 年的名目 GDP)，利用成長率推算每一年的實質 GDP 如表 13.6 (b) 所示

計算GDP 平減指數 13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP GDP 平減指數 衡量物價水準，以基期價格的百分比顯示當期的平均價格水準

13.3 名目 GDP 與實質 GDP 計算 2006 年的 GDP 平減指數， GDP 平減指數 = (名目 GDP ÷ 實質 GDP) x 100 因此： 2006 年的 GDP 平減指數 = ($600 ÷ $145) x 100 = 414.

跨期的生活水準 13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制 估計實質 GDP 的主要目的有二： 比較跨期的生活水準 比較不同國家的生活水準 表 20.8 計算之

13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制

13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制 短期的波動 實質 GDP 成長過程中的波動現象稱為景氣循環 景氣循環 指總產出與其他經濟指標呈現不規則上下波動的期間 景氣循環的四個階段為：擴張、波峰、衰退、波谷

不同國家的生活水準 GDP 忽略的貨品與服務 13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制 家計單位的生產 地下經濟 休閒時間 環境品質 A discussion of omissions from GDP can arouse students’ interest. For example, you might point out that if one of your students mows her/his own lawn, the value of the student’s production doesn’t show up in GDP. But if you hire the student to mow your lawn (and if your student reports the income earned correctly to the IRS), the value of the student’s production does show up in GDP. Why don’t we measure all lawn mowing as part of GDP? Some reasons are cost of collecting data and the degree of intrusiveness we’d be willing to tolerate. But note how little we spend on collecting the GDP data and how relatively inexpensive it would be to add some questions about domestic production to either the Labor Force Survey or the Family Expenditure Survey. You might like to explain how the omission of illegal goods and services also leads to some misleading comparisons. For instance, the day before prohibition ended, the production of illegal beer was not counted as part of GDP. But the day after prohibition ended, the production of now legal beer counted. Ask your students to suggest two good reasons why illegal goods and services are omitted. First, the data are hard but not impossible to obtain. Second, there may be the moral position that illegal activities should not be included in GDP. This latter observation can lead to an interesting discussion. Ask the students if they think that the production of, say, marijuana should be included in GDP. Some, maybe even many, of them will see no problem with this. Then ask about the production of murder-for-hire. The response, we hope, will be significantly different. Does such a good have any value?

13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制 家計單位的生產 實質 GDP 未估計家計單位的生產，例如煮飯，打掃等，因此 GDP 低估實際的生產價值 地下經濟 為了逃避政府控管的經濟行為，通常是為了逃稅或是非法的經濟行為 因為地下經濟是不被呈報的， 因此未被估算進 GDP

13.4 實質 GDP 的應用與限制 休閒時間 人們的工作時間價值被計入 GDP，但休閒時間的價值則不被計入 GDP 環境品質