Humboldt County Economy 2007 Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007

Humboldt County Economy 2007 By Erick Eschker Department of Economics Humboldt State University Humboldt Economic Index

Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

Six Sectors and Composite Energy Lumber-based manufacturing Employment Hospitality Retail Housing Composite

Energy Not much has changed in two years

Lumber Manufacturing Structural Decline but high variability The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Employment Very little change in overall employment Unemployment rate has risen recently

Hospitality Slight upward trend The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Retail Based on our own survey (we’re always looking for more data providers!) The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Housing New Real Estate Page on the Index Significant sales drop since summer % drop July-Sept (record drop) Sales now at 1997 levels

Housing

House Price to Rent Ratio Rose very quickly starting in 2003

Composite Decline since May Housing and Manufacturing the main reason

Forecast We don’t do forecasts Two local Leading Indicators show slowing

Forecast This is an important time –Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation? Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22 Uncertainty: –Financial Markets –Housing –Energy Prices –Consumer Spending