Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17,

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Presentation transcript:

Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2007 Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17, 2007

The CSES - Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

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Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: html

Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: html

Daily Temperatures +1.27ºC +0.95ºC

snow pack

June-July-August 2007 temperature anomalies

June-July-August 2007 standardized precipitation anomalies

Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at edu/forecast/monitor Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at edu/forecast/monitor

Summer ocean conditions

Last year’s outlook a weak to moderate El Niño a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons trends weak to moderate intensity El Niño because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely dry fall/winterbelow average end-of-season snow pack El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack a weak to moderate El Niño a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons trends weak to moderate intensity El Niño because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely dry fall/winterbelow average end-of-season snow pack El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack

NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND precip JFM precip

Precip: observed

NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND temperature JFM temperature

Temperature: observed

2121 This year…

La Niña arriving Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory

Equatorial temperature anomaly

The latest ENSO forecasts See European Center Forecast summaries

Typical winter winds and jet stream during El Niño and La Niña winters

Average La Niña winter precip:

PDO forecast

PDO forecast: drifting toward cool

Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades

Wet Autumn Temperature Precip

Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”

Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures

The Bottom line moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… – Persistent warming trends moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… – Persistent warming trends See

CPC Forecasts from Sept 20