Emerging Markets & Transition Economies Jens Hölscher Vice President European Association for Comparative Economic Studies University of Brighton.

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Presentation transcript:

Emerging Markets & Transition Economies Jens Hölscher Vice President European Association for Comparative Economic Studies University of Brighton

motivation

The bold story Continued strong growth

The bold story

Finance & Investment expanding fast

Financial turbulence? Implications for the region

structure introduction the scenario empirical findings Special theme: Happiness & Institutions SME developments country snapshots conclusion

The scenario (GDP growth 2007) Central East Europe and the Baltics (CEB) 6% South East Europe (SEE)7% Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 8%

Transition is... Privatision Liberalisation Stabilisation

Transition looks... J

empirical findings

2007 Czech Republic130 Hungary134 Poland158 Romania113 Russia93 (1989=100)

Special theme: happiness

Life in transition survey

Most people perceive decline

Strong support for democracy

weaker support for market economy

People want governments to invest in health care and education

… partly because of corruption

Past, present, future

Labour markets and employment

What do people do?

SME developments

registering for business

Share of SME Czech Republic , Estonia , Georgia Hungary , Kazakhstan65.0n.a. 1,688n.a. Romania* , Russian Federation ,

Czech Republic Kazakhstan Poland n.a n.a n.a n.a. 4.1 n.a. Romania n.a n.a. 5.0 n.a n.a. 8.6 n.a. Russian Fed n.a n.a n.a. 1.5 n.a n.a. Ukraine

Russia Estimate Output and expenditure GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Industrial gross output Agricultural gross output Employment Labour force (end- year) Employment (end- year) Unemployment (end- year)

Poland Estimat eProjection Output and expenditure GDP Private consumption na Public consumption na Gross fixed capital formation na Exports of goods and services na Imports of goods and services na Industrial gross output na Agricultural gross output na Employment Labour force (end- year) na Employment (end- year) na Unemployment (end- year) na

Romania Esti mateProjection Output and expenditure (Percentage change in real terms) GDP Private consumption na Public consumption na Gross fixed capital formation na Exports of goods and services na Imports of goods and services na Industrial gross output, unadjusted series na Agricultural gross output na Unemployment in per cent na GDP per capita in US Dollar1,651,792,102,743,484,54na

Ukraine Estimate Output and expenditure GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Industrial gross output Agricultural gross output Employment Labour force (end- year) Employment (end- year) Unemployment (end-year)

Kazakhstan Estimate Output and expenditure GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Industrial gross output Agricultural gross output Employment 1 Labour force (end- year) Employment (end- year) Unemployment (end- year)

A new fear: overheating Shanghai stock exchange: a casino? Regulation put to the test

interpretation diversity progress stagnation recession EU membership €

conclusion Ordnungspolitik required does successful transition need democracy?