Stochastic Forecasting of Drifting Ships and Smaller Objects Dr Øyvind Breivik Norwegian Meteorological Institute Kjell Røang Christian Michelsen Research.

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Presentation transcript:

Stochastic Forecasting of Drifting Ships and Smaller Objects Dr Øyvind Breivik Norwegian Meteorological Institute Kjell Røang Christian Michelsen Research

Objective To generate search areas for the Norwegian Search and Rescue Service based on the best available wind and current information Make search areas as small as possible, but not smaller Challenge

Other uses Containers Mine-like objects Objects at large (buoys, ROVs)

The Uncertainties Involved Where and when did the accident take place? Which object should we look for (life raft, person in water, …)? What are the wind conditions like in the area? What are the surface currents in the area?

Search Maths POS = POD x POC POS: Probability of success (do we find what we are looking for?) POD: Probability of detection (the keen eyes of the rescuers) POC: Probability of containment (are we searching in the right place?), our business

Forces on a Drifting Object Wind (leeway) Surface current Wave motion (damping and excitation) The motion of an object of arbitrary shape is difficult to model, approximations are needed

Leeway divergence Leeway divergence sends objects at an angle relative to downwind Symmetry allows stable drift left and right of downwind (little jibing is observed). →Diverging search areas with time

Downwind Approximations Wind speed and object drift is approximately linearly related Different objects drift differently... Life raft with drogue Undrogued life raft

Crosswind

Empirical leeway model

Archive and prognoses 7 day archive combined with 60 h prognoses of Wind from 20 km res. atmospheric model (HIRLAM 20) Surface currents from 4 km res. ocean model with tides and wind forcing (POM)

Wind and current close up

AWI 0203

Icelandic exercise 2003

Faroe exercise 2004

Operational use of LeeWay model Service operational from 2002 Simulation started by web order form Result transferred by Result presented in JRCC decision support system SARA

System architecture Wind and Current Drift Simulator Web order Result Presentation Transport GRIB format

Web order, old

Web order, New

Results, sailboat

Results, PIW and Life raft

Other simulators Oil drift Ship drift

Web order oil drift simulations

Oil drift

Web order, ship drift simulations

Ship drift, 1 simulation

Ship drift, ensemble model

Other services Weather forecasts overlay (MetOc) AIS/VMS Weather Observations

Weather forecast

AIS BasestationsPortsGraticule Legend

Weather Observations