1 Possible outcomes of the negotiations for developing countries and the implications for Mediterranean products by Pedro Arias Commodities and Trade Division

2 Contents  Preliminary considerations  Trade and Food Aid  Expressed concerns  Prospects

3 Preliminary considerations  Near East and North Africa  Population growth, soil erosion and soil degradation  Incidence of poverty  Cereal production and import requirements import requirements  The EU market

4 Citrus Trade ($552 mln)

5 Nuts Trade ($529 mln)

6 Olive Oil Trade ($400 mln)

7 Stone Fruits Trade ($133 mln)

8 Trade with the EU Morocco (mln €) TOMATOES, FRESH OR CHILLED 165 FRESH OR CHILLED BEANS 'VIGN//NSHELLED 110 FRESH OR DRIED MANDARINS INC//HYBRIDS 69 FRESH OR DRIED ORANGES 61 FRESH OR CHILLED VEGETABLES//SPINACH) 59 FRESH MELONS (EXCL. WATERMELONS) 57 FRESH STRAWBERRIES 51 FRESH OR CHILLED FRUITS O//PIMENTA 30 FRESH OR CHILLED POTATOES (EXCL. SEED) 14 FRESH GRAPES 13 FRESH PEACHES, INCL. NECTARINES 9 FRESH OR CHILLED ASPARAGUS 3 FRESH OR CHILLED PEAS 'PISUM//NSHELLED 3 CUCUMBERS AND GHERKINS, FRES//CHILLED 2

9 Trade with the EU Turkey (mln €) DRIED GRAPES 176 FRESH CHERRIES 93 FRESH OR DRIED FIGS 74 FRESH OR DRIED LEMONS "CITRU//TIFOLIA" 54 FRESH OR CHILLED FRUITS O//PIMENTA 44 TOMATOES, FRESH OR CHILLED 38 FRESH GRAPES 36 FRESH OR DRIED GRAPEFRUIT 36 FRESH OR DRIED MANDARINS INC//HYBRIDS 35 FRESH OR DRIED ORANGES 18 CUCUMBERS AND GHERKINS, FRES//CHILLED 8 FRESH OR CHILLED VEGETABLES//SPINACH) 7 FRESH APRICOTS 7 FRESH TAMARINDS, CASHEW APPL//DURIANS) 5

10 Trade with the EU Algeria (€,000) FRESH OR DRIED DATES 12,389 FRESH OR CHILLED VEGETABLES//SPINACH) 141 FRESH OR CHILLED FRUITS O//PIMENTA 42 FRESH OR CHILLED POTATOES (EXCL. SEED) 39 FRESH MELONS (EXCL. WATERMELONS) 27 TOMATOES, FRESH OR CHILLED 23 FRESH PEACHES, INCL. NECTARINES 9 GARLIC, FRESH OR CHILLED 8 FRESH OR CHILLED GLOBE ARTICHOKES 6 FRESH OR CHILLED LEGUMINOUS//SPP.') 3 FRESH OR CHILLED BEANS 'VIGN//NSHELLED 2 FRESH OR CHILLED AUBERGINES//GGPLANTS' 2 CUCUMBERS AND GHERKINS, FRES//CHILLED 1 FRESH OR CHILLED ONIONS AND SHALLOTS 0

11 Trade with the EU Tunisia (€,000) FRESH OR DRIED DATES 56,704 FRESH OR DRIED ORANGES 9,703 TOMATOES, FRESH OR CHILLED 3,056 FRESH WATERMELONS 2,389 FRESH OR CHILLED VEGETABLES//SPINACH) 1,922 FRESH OR CHILLED POTATOES (EXCL. SEED) 1,095 FRESH APRICOTS 499 FRESH PEACHES, INCL. NECTARINES 468 FRESH TAMARINDS, CASHEW APPL//DURIANS) 446 FRESH OR CHILLED ASPARAGUS 382 FRESH OR CHILLED GLOBE ARTICHOKES 307 FRESH MELONS (EXCL. WATERMELONS) 174 FRESH OR DRIED LEMONS "CITRU//TIFOLIA" 141 FRESH OR CHILLED ONIONS AND SHALLOTS 123

12 Food Aid Cereals only (MT of grain equivalent) Source: WFP Database

13 Food Aid and Food Import Bills Food Aid and Food Import Bills Water and prospects for increased output Water and prospects for increased output Water for high value products (f&v) Water for high value products (f&v) Expansion of EU Expansion of EU EU market access and preference erosion EU market access and preference erosion Concerns of NENA Countries

14 WTO - RELATED Committments on AMS difficult when production is subject to weather Committments on AMS difficult when production is subject to weather Capital investment on irrigation and water subsidies in the “green box” - but not explicitly Capital investment on irrigation and water subsidies in the “green box” - but not explicitly Preference erosion to EU, USA and Japan Preference erosion to EU, USA and Japan Domestic markets: diverging views Domestic markets: diverging views Concerns of NENA Countries

15 Concerns of NENA Countries WTO - RELATED Tariff cuts in foreign markets Tariff cuts in foreign markets Capacity to lobby within WTO Capacity to lobby within WTO RTAs and their notification to WTO RTAs and their notification to WTO SPS SPS Overall NENA opinion Overall NENA opinion

16 Concerns by Others Capacity to meet requirements of WTO membership Capacity to meet requirements of WTO membership Capacity to assess impact of policy changes Capacity to assess impact of policy changes Capacity to comply with SPS Capacity to comply with SPS Capacity to negotiate in WTO rounds Capacity to negotiate in WTO rounds Different countries at different stages of negotiation Different countries at different stages of negotiation The view of Freshfel Europe The view of Freshfel Europe Private Standards Private Standards Accession of Turkey to the EU Accession of Turkey to the EU

17 Prospects Will their markets open any further? Not all are WTO members Not all are WTO members Tariffication has left high bound rates Tariffication has left high bound rates Domestic support already reduced (SAPs) Domestic support already reduced (SAPs) Safeguard provisions expected (Special and Sensitive Products) Safeguard provisions expected (Special and Sensitive Products)

18 Prospects If WTO will impact, how’s it for f&v? Do they face competition? Do they face competition? To compete they may need to increase their market share To compete they may need to increase their market share Erosion of trade preferences Erosion of trade preferences SPS and Private Standards SPS and Private Standards