Modulation of the Extratropical Circulation by Combined Activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Equatorial Rossby Waves Lawrence C. Gloeckler and Dr. Paul E. Roundy Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University at Albany – SUNY DAES Undergraduate Thesis Presentation 2 May 2011 Albany, NY

Overview MJO Convection Extratropical Rossby Waves Equatorial Rossby Waves

Background Information

MJO Circulation 200-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 10 5 m 2 s −1 ), total wind (vectors in m s −1 ), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m −2 ). Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

MJO Circulation 200-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 10 5 m 2 s −1 ), total wind (vectors in m s −1 ), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m −2 ). Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

MJO Circulation 300-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 10 5 m 2 s −1 ), total wind (vectors in m s −1 ), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m −2 ). Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa Background Flow

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

ER Wave Development EQ 300-hPa

Data and Methodology Analyzed satellite-derived OLR data and NCEP— NCAR 40-year reanalysis data pertaining to 300- hPa geopotential height and wind anomalies Identified set of dates during NH winter (1 Nov– 31 Mar) when MJO was located over Maritime Continent  Position over Maritime Continent consistent with RMM Phase 4

Data and Methodology Identified longitude where ER wave crossing occurred most frequently for RMM Phase 4  Developed set of dates in which ER waves crossed identified longitude

Results: Hovmöllers

MJO Only RMM Phase 4 OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO Only RMM Phase 4 OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO Only RMM Phase 4 OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave Only RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave Only RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave Only RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO Only RMM Phase 4 OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER Wave RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m -2 ) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Significance Test Randomly selected a list of dates associated with RMM phase 4 equal to number of ER wave events counted at identified base point  Developed composite MJO with same number of degrees of freedom associated with combined composite Generated composite for random dates and repeated 1,000 times  Compared composite result to composite generated by randomly selecting ER wave events during RMM phase 4

Significance Test Determined mean amplitude of random MJO composite is approximately one half mean amplitude of simultaneous composite between 40°N and 50°N Two distributions demonstrated mean amplitude differences significantly larger than zero at 95% confidence level

Results: Composites

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, RMM Phase 4 OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

MJO Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, RMM Phase 4 Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

ER Wave Only OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Simultaneous MJO/ER Wave OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals) u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s -1 )

Summary MJO Convection Extratropical Rossby Waves Equatorial Rossby Waves

The Grand Conclusion Simultaneous assessment of MJO and ER wave events yields more information about extratropical circulation than can be obtained from either field alone, or from simple linear combination of two fields ER wave state during particular MJO phase might yield better empirical prediction of following global atmospheric circulation

Acknowledgments A special thank you to:  Dr. Paul Roundy for lending his time and expertise to helping me develop and analyze my research problem  Kyle MacRitchie for allowing me to use several of his MATLAB scripts, and for helping me understand the many facets of MATLAB

Thank you! Lawrence C. Gloeckler Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany – SUNY QUESTIONS?