Trade data for GTAP 5 Robert A. McDougall

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting2 Problems with services trade source data one-time only; not updated lacked country detail lacked commodity detail

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting3 Services trade data project Get detailed, ongoing services trade data. Expand sectoral classification. Provide data on international transport margins by mode. WTO contributes source data, derived from IMF and EuroStat statistics.

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting4 Trade data sets

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting5 Merchandise trade data set from Mark Gehlhar, ERS, USDA trade values FOB and CIF, by commodity, source, destination revised for GTAP 5, reference year countries Namibia and Botswana broken out from SACU

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting6 Merchandise trade data (cont.) informed by David Evans re southern Africa problems with non-reporters reduced, notably in FSU disaggregate and extend locally to 211 countries FOB value $5.0t, up 12% from GTAP 4 $4.6t

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting7 Non-margin services trade constructed locally from an intermediate services trade data set trade value by commodity, source, destn extend services trade data set from 109 to 211 countries in extending, value rises from $635b by 11% to $711b

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting8 Non-margin services (cont.) total value $711b, compared to GTAP 4 $978b GTAP 4 value inflated by travel, margin exports, royalties

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting9 Services trade data set constructed locally from WTO/IMF service exports and imports data trade value by sector, source, destination covers 109 countries original statistics have many missing values, affecting small countries and Japan fill in missing values, reconcile, bilateralize

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting10 Margin usage data international transport margin usage by mode (transport sector), freight sector, freight source, destination constructed locally from merchandise trade, services trade, mode share data sets from merchandise trade CIF, FOB difference, get margin usage by freight, source, destination

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting11 Margin usage (cont.) from services trade data set –get margin usage by mode and destination –extend from 109 countries to 211 –scale to match merchandise trade data (from $159b, increase by 11%, to $176b) get initial estimates of margin usage by mode, freight, source and destination from modal shares data set rebalance

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting12 Modal shares data set modal shares by mode, freight, source, destination constructed locally from data on modal shares in US trade, contributed by Mark Gehlhar Mark’s data shows high “other transport” shares in trade with Canada and Mexico, zero elsewhere

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting13 Modal shares (cont.) extend to all countries divide routes into: –between contiguous countries –between countries on same continent –between countries on different continents adjust “other transport” shares by factor of (1.0, 0.1, 0.001)

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting14 Margin usage: perspective only a minor part of services trade but takes up most of the space and takes up most of the processing time from which we seek not accuracy but mere sanity: –not much air transport of coal oil –not much ground transport between US and Japan

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting15 Margin supply margin services supply by sector and country constructed locally from services trade and margin usage data sets get margin exports data, scale to match margin usage data

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting16 Travel travellers’ expenditures, by commodity, source, destination (ctry of residence) constructed locally from services trade data, commodity share estimates covers all commodities big: $398b, 31% of all services trade no statistical underpinning for commodity share estimates

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting17 Hong Kong reexport services from Shunli Yao, Mark Gehlhar reexport services supplied by Hong Kong on exports from and imports into metropolitan China GTAP 5 update in process

April 12-14, 2000Advisory Board Meeting18 Agenda complete trade module (aggregate from countries to GTAP regions) use EuroStat data for bilateral trade get data on commodity composition of travel