Lecture 4: Map Discussion. In Wednesday’s class I noted the weather office comment that “A COLOSSAL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY OVER THE PRAIRIES”….

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Presentation transcript:

Lecture 4: Map Discussion

In Wednesday’s class I noted the weather office comment that “A COLOSSAL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY OVER THE PRAIRIES”…. … with a switch to a flow from the far north, and formation of a closed upper low over BC

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER … SNOWFALL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAIN PARKS. DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY OVER AB, WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE PROVINCE. THIS IS DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS OVER ALBERTA AND TIGHTENING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PRAIRIES. THUS, THERE WILL BE MANY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AB...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TOTAL VALUES NEAR 60MM. …PRECIP TYPE IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE FIRST SNOWFALL WARNINGS OF THE SEASON HAVE BEEN ISSUED. END/CARLSEN/MARK (The forecaster David Carlsen is an EAS graduate)

Received the following bulletin at Thu Sep 14 08:55: GMT … FCST PRBLM IS HOW FAR TO THE E AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS MIGHT SOME OF THIS SNOW CREEP. REG GEM** BRINGS EDGE ABT AS FAR E AS A PEACE RIVER-EDSON-CALGARY LINE BY ABT HRS..AS SFC LOW HEADS FOR ND..ALLOWING FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SWD & SEWD..A TRICKY SITN..AS THE FIRST SIG SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON USUALLY IS. (** Regional GEM, Regional run of the CMC Global Environmental Model)

CMC 500 mb analysis, Thurs 14 Sept 2006, 12Z closed low coastal ridge wind // height weak prairie winds T = ? T d = ?

Surface Convergence? upslope C. Ab ovc entire W. Cda steady rain, Edm, Cgry

CMC 850 mb analysis, Thurs 14 Sept 2006, 12Z o C isotherm upslope Ab wind how high is 850 mb sfc over Edmonton? baroclinic zone (strong temperature gradient, “  T”) height

Correlates with the 500 mb current around base of closed low Low cloud over Ab uppr lo + sfc cnvgnc absence of deep cloud consistent with the rain proving light and intermittent Thursday am

wind profile consistent with analysis charts entire troposphere saturated (or nearly) Light, upslope