Qdai for FENUL Finanças October 31
Qdai for FENUL Topics covered Expected return Variance, standard deviation Covariance Correlation Portfolio: return and risk
Qdai for FENUL Previously NPV: find appropriate discount rate The discount rate is related to the risk level of the project Measure the risk level with standard deviation. This class: the relationship between risk and return.
Qdai for FENUL Individual securities Expected return: The return that an individual expects a stock to earn over the next period.
Qdai for FENUL Individual securities Variance and Standard Deviation: the volatility of a stock’s return Covariance and Correlation: the interrelationship between two securities
Qdai for FENUL Expected return and Variance Superteck returns R AT Slowpoke Returns R BT Depression-20%5% Recession10%20% Normal30%-12% Boom50%9%
Qdai for FENUL Covariance and Correlation Superteck R AT Dev.Slowpoke R BT Dev.Product of deviations Depression -20%5% Recession 10%20% Normal 30%-12% Boom 50%9% Expected return Variance SD Covariance Correlation
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: expected return Expected return of a portfolio: the weighted average of the expected returns on the individual securities Example. R A =17.5% R B =5.5% Expected return on portfolio = If invest $60 in A and $40 in B, then Expected return on portfolio =
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: variance Variance of a portofolio Var(portfolio)=
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: variance The variance of a portofolio depends on For given variances of securities, a positive relationship (covariance) the variance of the portfolio A negative relationship (covariance) the portfolio variance.
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: variance Example: X A =60%, X B =40%, = , = , Cov (A,B)=
Qdai for FENUL Portoflio: variance The matrix approach AB A B
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: Standard Deviation Standard deviation of a portfolio = SD(portfolio) In the previous example, var(portfolio)= SD(portfolio) =
Qdai for FENUL Portfolio: diversification effect Superteck R A Slowpoke R B Portfolio with 60% in R A and 40% in R B Expected return 17.5%5.5%12.7% SD