rise, fall and upward sweeps: modeling city and state formation in world regions since the Bronze Age Christopher Chase-Dunn, Peter Turchin and E.N. Anderson NSF-HSD supported project Upward sweeps of empire size

[upward sweeps= those cases in which much larger states (empires) and cities emerge than have existed previously within a region.] Empirical tasks: Estimating the population sizes of largest cities, states and empires Measuring Empire Sizes Coding Core/Periphery positions Modeling approaches and substantive processes Modeling agrarian states, rise and fall in interstate systems (including non-state peoples) and upward sweeps in which states emerge that are much larger than any in adjacent regions Modeling trading states and network dynamics Modeling international political integration and world state formation

Spatial and temporal framework of the research: 1.the central system (political-military network or system of states) (from 2500 BCE or as soon as the size of the major states can be estimated) Mesopotamia, Egypt, the Aegean, Western Asia, the Eastern Med and then expanding to the west, east, north and south as delineated by David Wilkinson. 2. the East Asian region from the bronze age to now. 3. South Asia after the rise of states in the Ganges Valley (not Indus because not enough information) 4.and Mesoamerica, possibly the Mayan region, Oaxaca and Central Mexico – wherever it is possible to estimate the sizes of states and cities.

Rise and Fall of large powerful polities with intermittent upsweeps

Rise of the Central System (Wilkinson)

Iterative Causes of City and State Growth

Measuring empire sizes and identifying upward sweeps Upward sweeps of polity and city growth City growth: chandler’s estimates at Measuring polity growth: Taagepera’s methods: (“Size and duration of empires: systematics of size”1978:113) –Planimeter: tracing the outline of a shape to estimate the area. –Rules: the earliest date of uninterrupted tributary status; the date of territory loss is when reassertion of ever increasing autonomy first becomes noticeable. Spheres of influence are neglected. Average consensus of historical atlases is accepted. When there is great disagreement average as well as extreme estimates are reported. Give the benefit of the doubt to the larger or more durable entity. Taagepera’s data at:

Upward sweeps of empire size in the Central System: ( Taagepera’s data on territorial sizes of states and empires) akkadian Neo-Assyrian, Persian, Hellenic Rome Umayyads and Abbassids Mongol British

Modeling international political integration and world state formation Core-Wide Empire vs. Modern Hegemony (slide) Interstate system and diplomacy International law Colonization and decolonization (slide) Hegemonic Rise and Fall Political globalization: Concert of Europe International organizations League of Nations United Nations IMF, World Bank UN Reform The imperial detour vs. a democratic and collectively rational global commonwealth

Core-Wide Empire vs. Modern Hegemony

Resistance and global polity formation Waves of Colonization and Decolonization since the 16 th century David P. Henige, Colonial Governors