Don’t panic: The psychology of emergency mass evacuation Dr John Drury Department of Psychology University of Sussex

Emergencies, disasters and the human response Issues around exit decision-making What are the factors determining when people actually exit? Key predictors: –Information on the nature of the threat (rather than a simple siren) –Personalization of the warning (i.e. from friends/family rather than a p.a. system) Important! The biggest predictor of survival is time taken to recognize the emergency and move!

Emergencies, disasters and the human response Clinical issues –Freezing/detachment –Post-traumatic stress disorder

Emergencies, disasters and the human response Crowd psychology –Logistical issues –Psychological issues

The ‘panic’ model The panic model suggests that the crowd: –Is less intelligent than the lone individual –Will be driven by simple emotions –Responds with irrational behaviour –Is a source of ‘contagion’ Survival instincts overcome socialization and collective bonds → ‘every man for himself’

Problems of the ‘panic’ account Mass panic is actually rare in emergencies and disasters –atomic bombing of Japan during World War II –Kings Cross underground fire (1987) –fire at the Summerland leisure complex (1973) World Trade Centre disaster, Sept 11 th, 2001: –‘classic panic action or people behaving in an irrational manner was noted in [just] 1/124 (0.8%) cases’ (Blake, Galea, Westeng, & Dixon, 2004; p. 5)

Rationality and norms Both victims and survivors tried to exit using their ‘cognitive scripts’ – their knowledge of the station layout (Kings Cross Fire) Evidence of helping (Who concert stampede, 1979) Orderliness is also common (Beverly Hills supper club fire, 1977)

Some remaining questions… Are the risks people sometimes take to help save strangers examples of ‘everyday rules’? Aren’t they rather an effect of a new sense of ‘we- ness’ or togetherness that arises amongst victims of emergencies and disasters? Is the group or crowd a positive thing in an emergency? (enabling co-operation and facilitating effective escape)

Problems of researching mass emergency evacuation Ideal research: experimental control Ethics Simulation

Problems of researching mass emergency evacuation Ideal research: experimental control Ethics Simulation – without a real threat do people take it seriously enough? Post hoc interviews – is there a problem of memory or social desirability? Triangulation

Interviewing disaster survivors Sinking of the Jupiter, 1988 Sinking of the Oceana, 1991 Hillsborough (UK) football stadium disaster, 1989 Ghana football stadium ‘stampede’, 2001 Bradford (UK) football stadium fire, 1985 Fatboy Slim beach party, 2002 Harrods bomb, 1983 Canary Wharf (UK) emergency evacuation, 2001 London bombs, July 7 th 2005

1. Was there ‘panic’ or mutual aid? I had no choice in the matter, I just got carried along with it.. and where I ended up I ended up, you you there was no choice, well, you know, ‘right, I’m gonna stand over there’, you had no choice, you went where the crowd took you.. as everybody else did.. it was that scary, it was terrifying, but as I said once blind panic has set in I I would think that was that was the main part, every everyone really panicked, sheer panic, the police panicked, the crowd panicked, everyone panicked (Hillsborough 3)

there was no shoving, no pushing, no anything, everyone was always trying to help each other, I mean I know I was crushed for a bit, but that wasn’t anyone else’s fault..it was just they way I had fallen.. everyone went out in lines, you know, no-one was.. although everyone was cramming to get in we all kind of filed everywhere when we should have done…. (Jupiter 3)

2. Why was helping and concern for others so common? Roles and norms she [a teacher] was sort of marshalling kids from all different schools, because that’s the sort of thing (she) does.. (Jupiter 1) going up the stairs it wasn’t at all anarchic you know.. it was very kind of almost traditional, really (Fatboy Slim 1)

We-ness Int.How would you describe those who were in the evacuation with you? Is there any phrase or word you would use to describe them? J2As as a whole group? Int.Yeah J2……I guess I’d say mutually supportive..We were all strangers really we were certainly surrounded by strangers but …. most of, I mean I’d got my kids by me, but most people were split up from anybody they knew, and yet there was this sort of camaraderie like you hear about in the war times and this sort of thing.. there there was certainly a pulling together as opposed to a pulling apart. (Jupiter 2)

Where did the sense of we-ness come from? all of a sudden everyone was one in this situ- when when a disaster happens when a disaster happens, I don’t know, say in the war some- somewhere got bombed it was sort of that old that old English spirit where you had to club together and help one another, you know, you had to sort of do what you had to do, sort of join up as a team, and a good example of that would be when some of the fans got the hoardings and put the bodies on them and took them over to the ambulances (Hillsborough 3)

Statistical correlations: Threat  we-ness  helping

Survivor interview study: some conclusions As well as presenting logistical problems, there are psychologically positive aspects of crowds in emergencies: –They provide solidarity, aid, support Hence people’s collective identity should be enhanced – perhaps through the way people are addressed through p.a.s

Research on emergency evacuations: General conclusions The image of the panicking crowd is overdone The ‘panic’ model should not be used in design, engineering and emergency procedures The evidence is that people exit quicker when kept informed When people don’t help each other it is often due to physical constraints rather than ‘selfishness’.

Recommendations: How to make your emergency evacuation a success Don’t say ‘don’t panic’! A well-practiced drill –WTC bombings of 1993 and 2001: after 1993 they had a well-practiced drill (which should include fire wardens who know the building and its exits) In turn: owners/managers need to take the possibility of emergency seriously